Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes
sp'500
The sp'500 climbed for the fifth week of nine, settling +91pts (3.2%) to 2955, having broken a new cycle high of 2980. Weekly momentum has turned positive for the first time since mid February, back when the market was maxing out at 3393.
There is natural resistance at giant psy'3K. I would keep in mind, the 200dma at 2993, and the monthly 10MA at 2994. If the SPX manages a May settlement above the monthly 10MA, I would have to see that as a bullish monthly close, and the m/t trend could be argued as decisively turning back to bullish.
On the flip side, a failure to break AND hold above 3K would have to seen as a massive failure, and it would offer renewed downside. In theory, there is 'technical necessity' of the mid 2300s. That really isn't that bold, as even a fair number within the mainstream have a retrace target of the 2500/400s.
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Nasdaq comp'
Dow
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All five of the US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.
The Transports lead the way higher, with the SPX trailing.
More broadly, four of the five indexes remain under their respective monthly 10MA, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'.
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Looking ahead
It will be a short four day week, with Monday closed for Memorial day.
Key events:
Tuesday: The NYSE floor will reopen, if with a great many restrictions.
Wednesday: 'Launch America' - the first NASA manned launch from the US since 2011. The vehicle is by SpaceX, scheduled for liftoff at 4.33pm EST. I expect this to garner considerable mainstream coverage.
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Earnings:
M - *CLOSED*
T - BNS, AZO, LL, KEYS, NXGN
W - RY, RL, GOOS, CPRI, ERJ, BMO, HPQ, NTNX, TOL, BOX
T - TD, DG, DLTR, MOMO, SHOO, CRM, JWN, COST, VMW, ADSK, WDAY, DELL, MRVL, ZS, AMC
F - BIG, CGC
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Econ-data:
M - *CLOSED*
T - Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, consumer con', new home sales
W - Richmond Fed' manu', Fed Beige book (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, Q2 GDP (print 2), durable goods orders, EIA Pet', fed bal' sheet (4.30pm)
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent', Fed chair Powell (11am)
*As Friday will be the end of the month, I would expect significantly higher volume.
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| Late spring... in the depressionary economy |
Final note
With just four trading days left of the month, yours truly is already thinking ahead to the May/monthly settlements. Whilst I look at an array of indexes, I'll remain focused on the SPX. If we close much above 3K, the m/t trend will have to be seen as having turned outright bullish. On the flip side, a rollover from around 3K would be very bearish, and offer at least the mid 2300s.
Everything I've noted in recent weeks holds, not least that whilst there will be a powerful economic recovery of the collapse seen within Q1/Q2, it will likely only be half. This year is to be seen as depressionary, and it should be clear... further QE is coming, along with negative rates.
Life within the twilight zone is set to continue become ever more insane. We're going to need considerably more popcorn, is there a leveraged ETF for that?
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Enjoy the Memorial day break.
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Tuesday, May 26th.
