Permabear Doomster

Thursday, 7 May 2020

Broadly choppy

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +32pts (1.1%) at 2881. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +0.9%. The Transports settled +1.5%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened significantly higher, which was again bizarre... after another set of garbage jobs data...

The Santelli

Tom Lee of Fundstrat appeared on the lunchtime show...

TL has a year end target of sp'3450. For now, I can't subscribe to such a target, unless we see a monthly settlement back above the monthly 10MA (currently around sp'3K). Certainly though, Lee is always worth listening to.

The afternoon saw some latter day cooling to 2876, and settling at 2881.
Volatility was itself muted, the VIX settling -7.8% at 31.44.
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The lockdown continues

Bullish supermoon

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 6 May 2020

Most horrific data point ever

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, sp -20pts (0.7%) at 2848. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -0.9%. The Transports settled -1.4%. Near term outlook offers problems into the weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, which was kinda bizarre considering the ADP data. The gains were shaky though, with the market briefly turning negative.

The April ADP jobs data...

Employment data from ADP came in at -20.2M. On any basis, it was the most horrific data point ever. I guess some of the mainstream cheerleaders will already be looking to tout 'May came in at only 15M... a distinct improvement, a sign of the recovery!'. Yeah, you know some of them already have that sound bite drafted out.

The afternoon saw considerable chop, but leaning distinctly weak into the close.

Volatility printed 31.68, but leaned upward into the close, the VIX settling +1.5% at 34.12. The remainder of the week should favour the equity bears.
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Sunset in the city of traumatised sheep

Full moon...well, almost (99.3%).

Tuesday, 5 May 2020

WTIC inspired equity gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +25pts (0.9%) at 2868. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +0.8%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened significantly higher. Partly, it was cyclical, partly stronger European markets, and partly it was due to higher WTIC.

The US President duly chimed in...

Whilst higher prices are helping to juice equities - especially energy stocks upward, the $24s won't be enough to prevent mass sector bankruptcy. To avoid that... the US Govt', or rather the Fed, are going to need to fund yet another bailout.

The afternoon saw increasing chop, with the closing hour seeing some distinct cooling to 2863, as the market was s/t cyclically over-stretched.

Volatility was in melt mode, the VIX settling -6.6% at 33.61.
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A fine... if chilly (9c/48f) evening in the city of lockdown

Remaining a rare sight

Early evening moon.. as the sun sets

Full moon Thurs' May 7th