It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net
weekly declines ranging from -1.9% (Dow), -1.7% (NYSE comp' and Transports), -1.3% (SPX), to -0.2% (Nasdaq comp').
Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes
sp'500
The sp'500 saw considerable chop within 2727-2868, settling -37pts (1.3%) at 2836. Momentum ticked upward for a third week, and at the current rate is due to turn positive at the May 4th open. However, on balance, I would look for a stall around the key zero threshold. The subsequent down cycle will almost certainly be less deep, even if price marginally breaks the March low. This should also be reflected in the VIX, which should comfortably remain below the 85s.
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All five US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.
The Dow lead the way lower, whilst the Nasdaq comp' was very resilient.
More broadly, four indexes are holding under their respective monthly 10MA, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'.
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Looking ahead
Another very busy week is ahead, not least with a monster-truck load of earnings, and an FOMC. Further Corona related news headlines, by the hundred. can be expected each day.
Earnings:
M - PPG, NXPI, FFIV, KDP, CNX, AMAT
T - AMD, GLW, F, MMM, JNPR, AKAM, FEYE, MDLZ, MRK, SBUX, NUE, PFE, VALE, BYD, DHI, PEP, GOOGL, CAT, CNC, LUV, UPS, HOG, JBLU, SIRI, TAL, YUMC, SAN, NVS, HSBC
W - GE, FB, QCOM, TSLA, RIG, HAS, MSFT, NSC, YUM, HUM, EBAY, GD, MA, BA, NOC, SPOT, ANTM, VLO, CME, ALGN, APRN, NOW, DB, TDOC
T - DOW, AAPL, MGM, TWTR, GILD, X, MO, TAP, COP, LNG, BAX, AMZN, V, KHC, CMCSA, WDC, MCD, ILMN, SWK, ABMD, COG, DNKN, GNRC, CX, NOK, AMGN, UAL
F - ABBV, CVX, XOM, CLX, PSX, BRK.B, CL, HON, EL, DISH, PCG
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Econ-data:
M - Dallas Fed' manu' survey
T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer conf', Richmond Fed' manu'
W - Q1 GDP (print'1), pending home sales, EIA Pet' report
FOMC announcement (2pm), with a press conf' at 2.30pm. I would imagine questions will be taken via the phone. No change in rates can be expected. An update on QE can be expected.
T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, CPI, Chicago PMI, Fed' bal' sheet (4.30pm)
F - PMI/ISM manu', construction
*As Thursday is end month, I would expect more dynamic price action, on higher volume.
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| Sunset in the city of mass hysteria |
Final note
Net weekly declines, but in the scheme of things, it doesn't give any s/t clarity. Another burst upward still appears a threat, before a seemingly inevitable retrace/cooling wave. The mainstream cheerleaders appear resigned to 2600/500s, but yours truly is seeking (at least) the mid 2300s.
May is often a problematic month for equities, and even if we do print the 2900s within 1-2 weeks, that won't preclude the 2600s or lower, by end May.
The ultimate issue... how fast will the economic recovery be? If you assume Q2 GDP will be -30%, even a 15% recovery in Q3 will still make for a horrific net decline, as of the start of Q4.
The US/global economy has a very tough summer ahead, but that should offer many trading/investment opportunities... within the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.
