Permabear Doomster

Thursday, 23 April 2020

Thursday swings

US equity indexes mostly closed fractionally mixed, sp -1pt (0.05%) at 2797. Nasdaq comp' -0.01%. Dow +0.17%. The Transports settled +1.4%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened on a positive note, and battled until in the 12pm hour. Details of a Gilead Sciences (GILD) study on Remdesivir saw a significant swing lower.

The afternoon saw considerable chop, leaning on the weaker side, with the SPX settling fractionally negative.

Volatility was itself a little choppy, settling -1.4% at 41.38. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears, and it could be expected, we should see some degree of 'rats selling into the weekend', as the lockdown continues.
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Another sunset closer to summer

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 22 April 2020

Midweek bounce

US equity indexes mostly closed very significantly higher, sp +62pts (2.3%) at 2799. Nasdaq comp' +2.8%. Dow +2.0%. The Transports settled -0.1%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened significantly higher, helped via rebounding European markets and WTIC. Price leaned upward into the afternoon to 2815, with moderate cooling in the final ten minutes.

Volatility was in cooling mode, the VIX settling -7.5% at 41.98.
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Today's departure... partly funded by the BoJ

Sunset in the capital of mass hysteria

Tuesday, 21 April 2020

Blaming the bears

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -86pts (3.1%) at 2736. Nasdaq comp' -3.5%. Dow -2.7%. The Transports settled -1.6%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower, pressured by other world markets, and ongoing turmoil within the oil market.

Meanwhile...

It would seem the US Govt' will also bailout the energy sector, at least to some extent. I'd still expect some of the mid/small tier listed names to disappear, such as NBR, DO, CHK, and probably.. RIG.

The afternoon saw considerable chop, leaning rather weak.
Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +3.6% at 45.41.

Blaming the bears

In Monday evening's Corona press conf', the US President blamed the collapse in WTIC on the commodity bears.

It has long been the case that Trump has taken issue with those on the short side. Even as early as the election rallies in 2016, Trump would occasionally take a few swipes at anyone 'bearish USA'.

I can kinda understand Trump trying to place blame, but it sure as hell doesn't lay with those shorting oil or the related energy stocks. The reality is that almost all of the US energy sector has been operating at a sustained loss for many years. All that talk about the successful US shale/fracking industry is one giant LIE.

I expect more such 'blame the bears' talk from Trump in the weeks and months ahead. They are an easy target, and some in the mainstream will gladly play along with that notion, rather than face the reality that the US energy sector simply isn't competitive to the rest of the world.
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Sunset in the city of mass hysteria