Friday, 17 April 2020

Climbing into the weekend

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, sp +75pts (2.7%) at 2874. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +3.0%. The Transports settled +3.2%.

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VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened very significantly higher, on late Thursday news that Gilead Science's Remdesivir might be useful for treating Corona. The SPX broke an early new cycle high of 2862, some choppy cooling to 2830, but a late ramp to print a new cycle high of 2879.

Meanwhile...

Ms. Yoon of CNBC with the latest data from CCP.

The 'official' Q1 GDP print came in at deeply recessionary -6.8%. I emphasise 'official', as the real number is almost certainly at least -10%.

Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX melting lower into the weekend, settling -4.9% at 38.15.
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 16 April 2020

Thursday chop

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +16pts (0.6%) at 2799. Nasdaq comp' +1.7%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled -0.3%. Near term outlook offers opex-chop into the weekend.

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VIX'daily3



Summary

Despite another horrific weekly jobless claims number of 5.245M, US equities opened a little higher to 2804, saw a 40pt cooling wave, and a rebound to 2806.

Meanwhile, NY Gov' Cuomo...


We're now looking at the lockdown continuing into mid May. Understandably, many are starting to wonder just how long this (insanity) will last. The grander issue is that even when restrictions are lifted, the recovery to even semi-normalcy will be very low.

It should be clear, millions who have lost their job will have nothing to return to. Even those who will get back to work, they'll be far less inclined to travel, or spend money. The service sector will likely not recover to pre-crisis levels for some YEARS.

Volatility printed 43.02, but then cooled back, to settle -1.8% at 40.11... but hey, we're still talking about the FORTIES!
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Today's departure, partly funded via the BoJ

A city of mass hysteria...and a little smoke

                 A brief moment of serenity
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 15 April 2020

Broken delusion

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -62pts (2.2%) at 2783. Nasdaq comp' -1.4%. Dow -1.9%. The Transports settled -2.1%.

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VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower, after a barrage of horrific econ-data. There was a recovery into late afternoon, but it wasn't anything for the bulls to have hope for early Thursday. Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +8.2% at 40.84.


Broken delusion

I could rant a considerable amount on the following issue, but I'll have to be brief.

Its interesting how a single day can change things. Just yesterday, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV, were exceptionally positive. After all, we had the sp'2800s, and all those green equity boxes meant everything would soon be fine in the US/global economy, right?

This morning's set of econ-data was horrible... some was historically bad. Yet March will be nothing compared to the apocalyptically bad data for April and May. I will merely add... we have 'interesting times ahead'.
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Too big to fly, or rather.. fail, with bailouts for the flying cans of Corona.

Sunset in the city of mass hysteria
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com