Permabear Doomster

Thursday, 9 April 2020

Overtly timed press release

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +39pts (1.4%) at 2789. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +1.2%. The Transports settled +1.0%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Pre-market equity futures were broadly lower. The latest jobless claims appeared at 8.30am, with a horrific print of 6.606M. Ohh, but then the Fed issued a press release! Indeed, it was an overtly timed press release. Why not on Wednesday... or next Monday?

The truth is that the Fed are now at the stage where they are actively scheduling press releases to help divert attention, and offset horrific econ-data. Its pathetic, and a clear sign of just how desperate the monetary masters have become.

"Powell, Powells the man" - Cramer

Indeed, the mainstream cheerleaders for Print Central, were delighted with news of another $2.3trn to juice the markets. US equities duly opened significantly higher, and built very significant gains into the afternoon.

The mid afternoon saw OPEC announce massive supply cuts, but the market wasn't pleased, and with WTIC $22s, equities were pulled lower, with the Nasdaq even turning red.

Volatility was in cooling mode, the VIX settling -3.9% at 41.67, but yes, we're still dealing with the FORTY ONES.
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Another warm April day (23c/74f)

Sunset into the Easter break

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 8 April 2020

Battling upward

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +90pts (3.4%) at 2749. Nasdaq comp' +2.6%. Dow +3.4%. The Transports settled +3.6%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, but the gains were shaky, and the SPX came within 4pts of filling the opening gap, with price resuming upward.

Meanwhile...

The US President is understandably looking forward to the US economy re-opening. Whilst that does seem likely late April/early May, how many tens of millions will remain jobless into/across the summer?

The afternoon saw the market push upward with the FOMC minutes. Volatility was in cooling mode, the VIX settling -7.2% at 43.35.

Your views...

Whoever said my audience were biased to the downside? For the record, I do not see 2191 as a key m/t low. Yes, the Fed is throwing trillions into the market, but most of it is locked up on hard drivers in server basements. Another major swing lower is probable, if from the 2900s.
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Partly funded via the BoJ?

A fine end to a warm (21c/70f) April day.

The waning moon

Tuesday, 7 April 2020

Turnaround Tuesday

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, and far below the early morning highs, sp -4pts (0.2%) at 2659. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +0.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened powerfully higher, with an early high of sp'2756. From there... considerable chop. The afternoon saw increasing weakness, as s/t momentum continued to weaken, with most indexes settling net lower. They don't call it 'turnaround Tuesday' for nothing.

Volatility was mixed, printing an early low of 43.51, but settling +3.2% at 46.70. S/t outlook favours the equity bears ahead of the Easter break.
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A very murky sunset

A rare sight these days.

Maximum moon!