Permabear Doomster

Wednesday, 8 April 2020

Battling upward

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +90pts (3.4%) at 2749. Nasdaq comp' +2.6%. Dow +3.4%. The Transports settled +3.6%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, but the gains were shaky, and the SPX came within 4pts of filling the opening gap, with price resuming upward.

Meanwhile...

The US President is understandably looking forward to the US economy re-opening. Whilst that does seem likely late April/early May, how many tens of millions will remain jobless into/across the summer?

The afternoon saw the market push upward with the FOMC minutes. Volatility was in cooling mode, the VIX settling -7.2% at 43.35.

Your views...

Whoever said my audience were biased to the downside? For the record, I do not see 2191 as a key m/t low. Yes, the Fed is throwing trillions into the market, but most of it is locked up on hard drivers in server basements. Another major swing lower is probable, if from the 2900s.
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Partly funded via the BoJ?

A fine end to a warm (21c/70f) April day.

The waning moon

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 7 April 2020

Turnaround Tuesday

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, and far below the early morning highs, sp -4pts (0.2%) at 2659. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +0.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened powerfully higher, with an early high of sp'2756. From there... considerable chop. The afternoon saw increasing weakness, as s/t momentum continued to weaken, with most indexes settling net lower. They don't call it 'turnaround Tuesday' for nothing.

Volatility was mixed, printing an early low of 43.51, but settling +3.2% at 46.70. S/t outlook favours the equity bears ahead of the Easter break.
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A very murky sunset

A rare sight these days.

Maximum moon!

Monday, 6 April 2020

Light at the end of the tunnel

US equity indexes closed very powerfully higher, sp +175pts (7.0%) at 2663. Nasdaq comp' +7.3%. Dow +7.7%. The Transports settled +7.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened powerfully higher, inspired by a rather positive US President.. from Sunday evening, whom believes he can see the proverbial 'light at the end of the tunnel'. On that note, my early title for Monday's post was indeed 'light at the end of the tunnel'.

Shortly after... the US President...

The afternoon saw considerable chop, with the closing hour seeing SPX spiking upward.

Volatility was in cooling mode, the VIX settling -3.3% at 45.24. Tuesday will offer a turnaround, and in theory, the mainstream should have another 'reality check' before the Easter break.
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Bullish moon.... 97.1%