Midweek Pandemic

US equity indexes closed very powerfully lower, sp -140pts (4.9%) at 2741. Nasdaq comp' -4.7%. Dow -5.9%. The Transports settled -4.6%. Near term outlook offers the sp'2500s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower, pressured via further Coronavirus headlines.

Meanwhile...

I will merely note, that many out there seem more concerned with declining stock prices and upset capital markets, than the loss of life. Kudlow, whom I could cite many past instances... simply doesn't recognise the gravity of the situation the US might be facing. I could go on... but I'm sure some of you could guess the rest.

Trump continued on Twitter...

I will merely note, in late January, the Corona threat became clear. Whilst the US President did eventually take action to prevent inbound flights from China, the Chinese then merely side-stepped to Vietnam (or some other nearby country), and then took a second flight to the US.

Flights - from ALL nations should have been stopped, along with all cruise/leisure trips. But no, that would have harmed stock prices, and 'they' prize that above almost everything else.

The sad irony is that rather than taking those decisive measures, things are set to be far worse. I'd again refer you to the Rogan/Osterholm interview, that I highlighted yesterday.
see: https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw

The afternoon saw the WHO finally declare the Coronavirus outbreak as a Pandemic. They are some 4-6 weeks slow in declaring it, and some number of deaths are 'on their hands'. The medical historians of the 22nd century will have more to say on such things.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +13.9% at 53.90. S/t outlook offers the mid sp'2550s. I'd acknowledge an extra washout to the Dec'2018 low of 2346 is very viable, before putting in a s/t hyper spike floor.
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London is still taking inbound flights. Not. So. Smart.

Magnolias as spring is nearing

A fine evening

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Goodnight from London
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The wild swings continue

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +135pts (4.9%) at 2881. Nasdaq comp' +4.9%. Dow +4.9%. The Transports settled +5.4%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened very significantly higher, but the gains were shaky from the start.

Trump appeared in mid morning...

... and naturally took another swipe at Print Central. Low/neg' rates are problematic, especially for the financials. It seems clear the Fed will follow the BoJ and the ECB, and undermine the very system they are trying to prop up.

The late morning saw equities turn fractionally lower.
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CNBC regular Niles is boldly calling for a recession...

A 30% drop from 3393 would equate to 2376, whilst a 50% drop would be 1697.The latter would interestingly be close to a back test of the old double top of 2000/2007 of the 1500s. That would be.... ideal.

The afternoon saw a powerful swing back upward, from what is a s/t double floor of 2734. The s/t outlook leans bullish, if only for a day or two. Clearly, the market will be vulnerable to any further Corona related headlines.

Volatility remained very elevated, with the VIX settling -13.1% at 47.30.
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Meanwhile...

In the land of yours truly, case numbers total 373, with 6 deaths. Right now, the doubling period is 4-5 days. So, the UK could be expected to be >1000 by around next Wednesday's FOMC. Yours truly is close to deciding to shop only at 2am... when most of the unwashed sheep are fast asleep.


The following is highly recommended...



"We conservatively estimate that this could require 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases actually, occurring over 480 thousand deaths, that can occur over the next three to seven months" - Osterholm.

Reflect on that, this evening. 
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Monday Market Massacre

US equity indexes closed severely lower, sp -225pts (7.6%) at 2746. Nasdaq comp' -7.3%. Dow -7.8%. The Transports settled -9.7%. Near term outlook offers a s/t capitulation low in the sp'2500s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened severely lower, with the circuit breakers kicking in at 9.34am, with the spx -208pts (7.0%) at 2764.

Turn those machines back ON!

This morning was the most appropriate time we've ever had for the following clip from the wondrous movie 'Trading Places'...



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After further complaints about Biden/Obama, Trump noted...

The US President's point that lower gasoline/fuel prices are good for the consumer, is indeed correct, but the point is moot, if the consumer is under a Corona lockdown.

The afternoon saw significant chop, with no doubt, some significant number of 'margin calls'.

Volatility printed 62.12, the highest since Dec'2008, settling +29.8% at 54.46. Near term outlook offers the sp'2500s, which would make for a natural area for the market to punch in a s/t hyper spike floor.

Meanwhile...

Map/data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
We now have six countries with secondary outbreak case numbers >1000. It should be clear... this is just the early stage. How long until global cases >1M, April, May, or a little beyond?

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com