Permabear Doomster

Thursday, 27 February 2020

Nearing Broken Arrow

US equity indexes closed very powerfully lower, sp -137pts (4.4%) at 2978. Nasdaq comp' -4.6%. Dow -4.4%. The Transports settled -3.6%. Near term outlook offers further horror into early March.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower, and spiraled to sp'3007. The typical turn time of 11am saw a not surprising spike back upward.

Just another flying can of Corona... Boeing?

There was a recovery to 3097, but then powerful downside into the close, breaking a new cycle low. Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +42.1% at 39.16.
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Nearing broken arrow

With the capital markets increasingly upset, it can't be long until the Federal Reserve declare 'Broken Arrow'.

Whilst further rate cuts and QE can be expected, none of it will help cure Corona.

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Ohh, and a few polls...

A collective 56.6% of you expect 'helicopter money' before year end.
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$1000 to every US citizen wouldn't be that surprising.
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Magnolias are poised

Another day closer to spring

Sunset 5.16pm GMT

Crescent moon and Venus

Full moon will be March 9th

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 26 February 2020

Helicopter Money

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 3116. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled -2.2%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities open on a positive note, and battled upward to 3182, but the sellers appeared, with the SPX turning moderately lower to 3108.

Volatility saw some swings, a low of 24.76, but then pushing to the mid 29s, and settling -1.0% at 27.56.
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Whilst the official Chinese case numbers are leveling off, we have growing outbreaks, notably within South Korea, Italy, and Iran.

Map/data: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Helicopter Money

There was overnight news that Hong Kong - among a number of measures, will give HK$10000 to each permanent resident above 18yrs of age. That equates to $1283 or so.

Its not the first time the HK leadership has thrown money at the populace.

If Corona virus sees significant outbreaks within the US, the Fed' are going to respond with further rate cuts and continued QE. Yet, it seems increasingly probable that the US Govt'/Fed' will start issuing helicopter money.

Q. When will the US Govt'/Fed' start issuing block/s of free money to the general population?

Q. How much might the US Govt'/Fed' give people?

Can we expect 'helicopter money' of $1000 per US Citizen (>18yrs of age) at some point this year?
These are ever more crazy times, and helicopter money has to be expected at some point. Corona would certainly be an excuse.
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Spring is coming!

A moment of peace

Twilight skies -Venus and the Crescent moon

Next full moon is March 9th

Tuesday, 25 February 2020

Failed bounce, renewed horror

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -97pts (3.0%) at 3128. Nasdaq comp' -2.8%. Dow -3.1%. The Transports settled -4.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the SPX stalled at 3246, and then spiraled lower into the afternoon.

Meanwhile....

It was another no-mask day for Ms. Yoon of CNBC. Whilst 30% of Chinese SMEs are reportedly back up and running (but probably not at full speed/capacity), that still leaves 70% still closed for business.

The afternoon saw equities under increasing pressure via the bond market, and further Corona headlines.

CNBC naturally wheeled out the Kudlow...

Larry is often a contrarian indicator, and his view that it won't be an 'economic tragedy' should at least somewhat concern you!

Volatility opened lower, but swung upward with renewed equity upset, the VIX settling +11.3% at 27.85. The rest of the week should be equally... dynamic!
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Sunshine after the rains


Something dark is coming