Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts).
sp'500
It was a powerfully bullish week, breaking a new historic high of 3347, with the SPX settling +102pts (3.2%) to 3327. Monthly price momentum continues to strengthen, note the macd (black line), at 178.903, the highest level since (at least) 1990.
I would note the key 10MA, currently at 3053. Equity bears need to see a monthly settlement under 3000 (to be decisive) to have any hope of a mid/long term top. For now, other than Corona, there is zero reason to expect any such bearish monthly settlement this year.
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Nasdaq comp'
The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high of 9575, settling +369pts (4.0%) at 9520.
Dow
The mighty Dow broke a new historic high of 29408, settling +846pts (3.0%) to 29102. I would note the key 10MA at 27259.
NYSE comp'
The master index settled +317pts (2.3%) to 13931.
Trans
The 'old leader' - Transports, settled +290pts (2.7%) to 10857. Monthly price momentum remains fractionally negative. A failure at the key zero threshold would be analogous to mid 2012 and mid 2008. The Corona virus has to be seen as a particularly serious threat to this sector/index.
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Summary
All five US equity indexes saw very significant/powerful net weekly gains
The Nasdaq comp' is leading the way higher, with the NYSE comp' lagging.
The SPX, Nasdaq comp', and Dow broke new historic highs.
All five indexes are comfortably above their respective monthly key 10MA.
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Looking ahead
A somewhat lighter week is ahead, but we can expect further sporadic Corona headlines.
Key event: Tues' Feb'11th, Democrat New Hampshire primary. Sanders can be expected to win, assuming the DNC don't cancel, or rig the vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_primary
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Earnings:
M - AGN, CHGG, XPO
T - UAA, HAS, GT, HLT, LYFT, EXAS, AKAM, WU, DENN
W - SHOP, CVS, TEVA, GOLD, CME, TRVG, CSCO, AMAT, MRO, CTL, MGM
T - BABA, KHC, PEP, WM, YETI, ZTS, AIG, ROKU, NVDA, AYX, AUY, NET, CC
F - CGC, YNDX, NWL
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Econ-data:
M -
T - Jolts, Powell (10am)
W - Powell (10am), EIA Pet', US t-budget
T - Weekly jobs, CPI, Fed bal' sheet (4.30pm)
F - Retail sales, import/export, indust' prod', bus' invent', consumer sent'
*As the following Monday Feb'17th is CLOSED, I would expect the preceding Friday Feb'14th to see more dynamic price action on higher volume. Further, considering the ongoing Corona issue, I would look for a significant case of 'rats selling into the long weekend'.
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| A fine sunset, before Atlantic storm Ciara |
Final note
Perhaps the ultimate question right now is how big a threat to the global economy is Corona? The truth is, no one knows. Well, maybe the Chinese communists know, but they sure aren't telling.
Whilst the death toll is 'relatively' low, the Chinese government's actions reek of utter panic. After all, you don't effectively lock off 400M of your populace because 700 have died. I have to see them as being genuinely afraid that millions will die.
At minimum though, we have travel issues. The airlines and cruise line companies are going to be hit into the spring. The casinos are impacted, although maybe that really isn't such a bad thing. The supply chain for manufacturing and tech-hardware is clearly problematic.
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| More of a threat than Corona |
For now, those in the west, have no real reason to panic. Personally, I'd not be worried unless I see at least 500 cases in the UK, and even then, statistically, there is a far higher probability of a 737MAX crashing into my apartment, than being infected with Corona.
Further, once we get to late March/early April, the virus should be less of a problem as temps rise. So... for now, yours truly isn't particularly concerned, not least as I've other more pertinent issues to be dealing with.
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| Full moon, before Storm Ciara |
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
