Permabear Doomster

Wednesday, 28 August 2019

The swings continue

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +18pts (0.7%) at 2887. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow +1.0%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.8% and +1.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, but sp'2853 was all the bears could manage, and we saw an opening reversal. Equities battled upward to moderate gains into the afternoon, printing 2890, and settling +18pts at 2887.

Meanwhile...

... it just wouldn't be a normal trading day without at least one tweet from the US President about Print Central.

Volatility saw an early spike to 21.64, but then cooled back, settling -4.7% at 19.35. S/t outlook offers a little further upside in equities, but a break <2822 still appears far more probable than a decisive bullish break >2960.
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A glimpse of late summer sunshine

.. as Autumn isn't far off.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 27 August 2019

Trump vs Print Central

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -9pts (0.3%) at 2869. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow -0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.0% and -1.4% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the SPX got stuck at 2898, notably 2pts shy of the key 2900 threshold. There was cooling into early afternoon, with a low of 2860, with late day chop to settle at 2869.

Meanwhile...

After his weekend break at the G7 in France, it sure didn't take long for Trump to resume the attacks on the Fed. The US President has his designated scapegoat for any degree of equity downside, never mind a possible recession.
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Volatility saw an early low of VIX 18.49, but then swung to 21.04, and settling +5.1% at 20.31. S/t outlook offers an equity brick wall around sp'2900. Another challenge to break the recent low of sp'2822 is on the menu.
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Monday, 26 August 2019

Starting positive

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +31pts (1.1%) at 2878. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +1.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities started the week on a positive note, although the gains were pretty shaky, with the SPX cooling to 2856, before swinging back upward into the afternoon.

Meanwhile...

... it was just another day in the twilight zone, as Pisani of CNBC highlighted the recent phases of 'Trump mood'. Its not a stretch to eventually seeing a little box in one of the corners highlighting what mood phase we're in.

Volatility remained elevated, with the VIX settling -2.8% at 19.32. S/t outlook favours the equity bulls for early Tuesday. More broadly though, price structure is a big bear flag, offering an eventual break lower.
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