Permabear Doomster

Friday, 23 August 2019

Enemy of the State?

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -75pts (2.6%) at 2847. Nasdaq comp' -3.0%. Dow -2.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.3% and -3.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a sig' gap lower at the Monday open.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities were somewhat wild even before the market opened, with the SPX swinging from around +8pts to -20pts. The market opened moderately weak, but then battled upward to fractionally positive with the Powell press release/statement.

At 10.57am EDT, the US President decided to get involved...

Its a rather incredible tweet, but also somewhat disturbing.

Q. If you were Powell, what the hell would you make of it? You're effectively being equated to the leader for what is (arguably) an enemy state.

A serious question, might Powell just quietly walk away before year end?

Trump continued...

The FOREX market took this as alluding to an announcement that the US Treasury will actively try to weaken the dollar.

The afternoon saw continued weakness, with few (understandably) wanting to 'buy the dip' ahead of the weekend. The closing hour printed 2834, and settling at 2847.

Volatility swung from 16.04, to spike above the key 20 threshold, settling +19.1% at 19.87. S/t outlook threatens a Monday gap open <sp'2822, which would offer a test of the June low of 2728.
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Gold, Silver, and the miners ascending into the weekend

No sunset for the equity bulls

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 22 August 2019

Monetary masters on parade

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1.5pts at 2922. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. Dow +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the SPX pushing to 2939. There was a sig' swing lower on fed official comments, but 2906 was all the bears could manage, before recovering into the afternoon.

Meanwhile... even before the market opened, the US President was issuing new complaints...

We now have Trump complaining that US bond yields are not negative, and blaming the fed. The anti-fed talk is relentless.

A number of people are starting to recognise that the authority of the US Fed is being ground down, and if anything close to the financial collapse of 2008 occurs, the US Govt' will likely take direct control of monetary policy. The implications of that... should be clear.

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Volatility was itself a little volatile, seeing a morning high of 17.68, but settling +5.6% at 16.68. S/t outlook favours the equity bulls... so long as Powell and/or Bullard don't say anything 'stupid'.
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Monetary masters on parade

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CNBC with a long list of fed officials, and a bonus of the (Canadian) BoE Carney.

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It just makes me think of...

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Summer continues to fade

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Wednesday, 21 August 2019

Midweek rebound

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +23pts (0.8%) at 2924. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers another swing lower.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, inspired by significant gains in European markets, but also good earnings from Target and Lowes.

Meanwhile...

Once again, the US President cites a guy whose 'best stock for 2008' was Washington Mutual.

Trump continued...

So, does Powell play golf, is that the important question we should be asking?
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The afternoon saw the press release of the July FOMC minutes from Print Central, with equities seeing minor chop into the close.

Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -9.7% at 15.80. S/t outlook favours another swing lower to price gap of 2864/47, and that should equate to VIX 20/21s.
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