Permabear Doomster

Friday, 9 August 2019

Weakness into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -19pts (0.7%) at 2918. Nasdaq comp' -1.0%. Dow -0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.1% and -1.2% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened weak, and cooled to the 2900 threshold, before seeing some choppy upside into the late afternoon. The closing hour saw a classic instance of 'rats selling into the weekend', swinging from 2932 to settle -19pts (0.7%) to 2918.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX seeing a peak of 19.44, and settling +6.3% to 17.97. The s/t cyclical outlook moderately threatens a push to the sp'2943/53 gap zone, before yet another rollover. A break of the 2822 low is very much within range next week.
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Full moon is Thurs' Aug15th

Moody skies to end a turbulent week

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 8 August 2019

Ascending into the danger zone

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, sp +54pts (1.9%) at 2938. Nasdaq comp' +2.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.7% and +2.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers some cooling into the weekend.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built very significant gains into the late afternoon.

Meanwhile, the US President couldn't resist...

... taking yet another swipe at the Fed. I have to wonder if Powell is aware of just how much Trump is tweeting about him and the institution he leads.

Volatility was naturally lower, with the VIX cooling for a third day, settling -13.2% at 16.91.

As for ascending into the danger zone, equity bulls have seen a powerful bounce from sp'2822 to 2938. Despite the daily close above the 50dma, a bounce is very likely what it is. Many do recognise the next few months will likely see a number of bouts of very volatile market action.

From a trading perspective, it will offer a great many opportunities, both short and long side. Yours truly remains particularly focused on the precious metals and the related mining stocks, both of which are increasingly m/t bullish.
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Korean A-380 ascending...

... and fading away.

A glimpse of sun... before the storm

Wednesday, 7 August 2019

Midweek swings

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 2883. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Pre-market futures were a little higher, but then the market became very upset with another wave lower in bond yields.

Trump resumed the anti-fed rhetoric...

Start reading from the bottom tweet!

It has become something of a broken record, as Trump again demanded for QT to end 'NOW'... which did actually end a week ago. Regardless, it should be clear, Trump will raise the pressure on Powell to step down, and be replaced with the Bullard.

Volatility opened moderately higher to 23.67, but then slipped into cooling mode, settling -3.4% to 19.49. S/t price structure is a bear flag in equities, with a mirror bull flag in the VIX. Minimum downside target remains the 200dma at sp'2791, with secondary of legacy gap of 2762/44, and most bearish case of the 2730/20s.
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Full moon is Thurs' Aug'15th.