Bullard leading the charge

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2926. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers Thursday cooling, with soft target of the 2900/2890 zone.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in micro chop mode, and naturally stayed that way into the 2pm FOMC announcement.

The outlook from twelve fed officials merits highlighting...

The most notable (but not surprising) aspect of today's FOMC statement, was that Bullard was calling for a June rate cut. Lets be clear, Bullard, aka, the bane of the equity bears, aka... uber-dove, is going to replace Powell, the only issue is whether its before year end, or in 2020.

Equities managed to claw to sp'2931 in the closing hour, settling a little higher, notably... just 28pts (1.0%) shy of the May 1st historic high.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling -5.4% at 14.33. The s/t cyclical setup favours the bears, not least with it being a Thursday. Its possible, if not probable that Trump will tweet some frustration that Powell didn't cut rates.

ps... we only have another 42 days to the FOMC of July 31st, when rates can be expected to be cut by 25bps to 2.00/2.25%.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com

 

Printing threats and trade hopes

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +28pts (1.0%) at 2917. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.2% and +1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers a case of 'post fed depression'.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of threats and hopes. The day began early with the ECB's Draghi issuing overt threats to spool up the printers, a mere six months after they were halted. Trump wasn't happy with that...

Equities opened broadly higher, and with the gains a little shaky (opening 30/60min black candles)... this appeared...

... and that resulted in a secondary ramp, with legacy gap of sp'2913/32 being tagged. The afternoon saw moderate chop, leaning a touch weak into the close. Volatility was subdued, with the VIX settling -1.3% to 15.15.

Meanwhile, Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley was making the mainstream cheerleaders a little bit twitchy...

Wilson... on the far right.

Wilson's call for a 10% drop within the relatively near term is a bold call.

The sp'2600s won't be easy, never mind anything in the 2500/400s. With just eight trading days left of June, the latter looks a stretch this July/August, unless we settle back under the monthly 10MA, currently at 2783.

Wednesday afternoon won't be boring. The s/t cyclical setup will favour the equity bears, and that should carry across into Thursday.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com

 

The week begins quietly

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 2889. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.0% and +0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers chop into Wed' afternoon.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and managed to build moderate gains by late morning, with the afternoon seeing further micro chop.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling +0.5% at 15.35.

Meanwhile, the cheerleaders...

... were having a polite discussion about interest rates, and what the fed should say in its policy statement this Wednesday afternoon. The Cramer wants no mention of 'patience', but does want to hear Powell talk about 'monitoring'. A few are still looking for a 50bps cut in July, but that looks a stretch unless the market is sp'2650 or lower by mid July.

In any case, rate cut'1 is on the menu for July 31st, and whilst the initial market reaction will likely be positive, it still merits as being seen as a powerful equity sell signal.

Ohh, and whilst the week began quietly... it won't likely end that way. 

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com