Midweek swings

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts (0.6%) at 2851. Nasdaq comp' +1.1% The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers yet another cooling wave ahead of Friday opex.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, but saw a significant upward swing to moderate gains, as it was reported the US would delay tariffs on EU auto imports. The afternoon saw a high of 2858, just 6pts above yesterday's high. The closing hour saw some subtle cooling, as some bulls are still too twitchy to hold overnight.

Volatility saw an opening high of 19.15, then cooled to the 16s, and settling -9.0% at 16.44.The s/t cyclical setup will favour the equity bears... not least on a Thursday.
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Koreans to the moon?

12c/53f, sunny... but it sure ain't warm.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Rebounding Tuesday

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +22pts (0.8%) at 2834. Nasdaq comp' settled +1.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.4% and +1.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Tuesday opened moderately higher, but the gains were pretty shaky, and some stocks even turned briefly red. The morning saw increasing strength, with the market building very significant gains into the afternoon. The late afternoon saw some distinct cooling from 2852 to settle at 2834.

Volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling -12.1% at 18.06. The s/t cyclical outlook favours the bears for a cooling wave to at least 2820.
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Meanwhile...

Here in the UK, as we're still part of the EU, yours truly will get to vote in another European election. The following arrived this morning from Change UK...

It shall forever remain ironic that all three of the main UK political parties campaigned against BREXIT in 2016. They sure didn't like the result, and did not follow through with exiting the EU in March 2019, as they repeatedly promised. Change UK is spearheading a push to see a secondary vote.... which I do see probable. A secondary vote would see the UK populace vote against any deal to leave.
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Another lucky group departing

Full moon this Saturday

With NASA stating a pretty clear 'we are going...'



(voice-over by none other than Capt' Kirk.. aka.. Shatner). 2024 really isn't that far away. Between now and then, a great many launches from (amongst a fair number of others) NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Ariannespace, India, even Israel.
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... almost warm.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com

 

Irrelevant trade tariffs

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -69pts (2.4%) at 2811. Nasdaq comp' -3.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.8% and -3.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower on yet more trade concerns. Ongoing trade chatter from Trump, and early morning news of China retaliatory tariffs didn't help, with the market spiraling lower across the morning and continuing into mid afternoon.

Volatility picked up, with VIX 21.32, and settling +28.1% at 20.55. However, that was notably far below the early Thursday high of 23.38.


Irrelevant trade tariffs

China announced new/updated tariffs on 2,493 of US goods, set to begin June 1st. 

2,493 @ 25%
1,078 @ 20%
974 @ 10%
595 items to remain @ 5%

The early morning headline was 'Tariffs on $60bn of goods', but lets be clear, we're really only talking about (at most) around $10bn of increased tariffs.

Sorry, but the numbers we're dealing with are entirely IRRELEVANT for a $20 trillion US economy. Yes, some individual companies will have significant issues, but for most... its a non-issue.

The mainstream have little to no perspective on this, although that in itself shouldn't be surprising. If you think trade tariffs are the 'key to this market or economy', you're looking in the wrong direction.

I would accept there are secondary issues, not least one of confidence. Economic and market CONfidence is a very important issue, and its one reason why we've cooled from sp'2954 to 2801. For now, the US/China trade war is arguably just a skirmish, and I still expect an eventual agreement.

Until I see a bearish monthly close (most indexes settling under the monthly key 10MA) and a rate cut, I continue to see any cooling waves as such.
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How much is the tariff on this one?

A moment of peace

Full moon is just after opex, this Saturday

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service. 
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com