Tuesday, 30 April 2019

The sun sets on April

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts (0.1%) at 2945. Nasdaq comp' -0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.4% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a day of moderate swings in equity land, with the morning seeing a low of sp'2924, but then a rather typical latter day recovery to settle broadly flat. Volatility did pick up, with the VIX printing 14.05, but then melting back lower to settle +0.1% at 13.12.


SPX, monthly


The sp'500 climbed for a fourth consecutive month, +111pts (3.9%) to 2945, having broken a new historic high of 2948. On any basis, it was a very bullish month. Note the macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, as price momentum is about to turn net positive for the first time since Oct'2018. The outlook for May has to be bullish.
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AMD and AAPL bulls set to ascend in early May

The sun sets on April
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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 29 April 2019

The market rests for no man

US equity indexes mostly closed a little higher, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2943. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and +0.4% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a subdued, but bullish day for the US equity market, with the SPX and Nasdaq comp' breaking new (if marginal) historic highs. The underlying m/t upward trend continues, as the bears are effectively powerless.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX churning within the 13/12s. Whilst the VIX can't go much lower, it can stay low for weeks, even months at a time.
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The market rests for no man

I think a fair few million were only half awake for today (yours truly included), primarily due to last evening's episode of Game of Thrones. With just three episodes left, its been one hell of a show, and perhaps more than anything, I'm really curious as to what the final shot/scene of the series will be. I'd like it to be a series of jumps across the map.

A man would be proud of a girl
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Arya sure has progressed across the last eight seasons.

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As green as the US equity indexes


Summer is near
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 27 April 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.7% (R2K), +1.2% (SPX), +0.5% (NYSE comp'), -0.1% (Dow), to -1.0% (Transports). Near term outlook offers further upside into end month/early May.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX broke a new multi-month high of 2939.88 in Friday's closing hour, which made for a net weekly gain of 34pts (1.2%) at 2939. New historic highs >2940 appear on the menu into end month. Giant psy'3K is technically within range in May. I would keep in mind the next key Fibonacci extrapolation of 3047. However, it will not be easy to climb above there, as the SPX was notably 4pts shy in 2015 of the key 1.618x fib' of 2138.
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Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high of 8151, settling +148pts (1.8%) to 8146. Upper weekly bollinger is offering the 8300s in early May. Talk of the 9000s by early autumn can begin.


Dow


The mighty Dow broke a new cycle high of 26695, but settled -16pts (0.1%) to 26543, weighed down by declines in INTC, MMM, and XOM. Note the upper weekly bollinger, currently offering technical upside to new historic highs in the 27500s.


NYSE comp'


The master index gained 68pts (0.5%) to 12991. The m/t equity bulls should be seeking a weekly close above the Sept'2018 high of 13261.


R2K


The R2K settled +26pts (1.7%) to 1591. The outlook into end month/early May has to be bullish. A weekly close above the Feb' high of 1602 appears on the menu by mid May. The Aug'2018 historic high of 1742 is still a considerable 151pts (9.5%) to the upside.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the laggard this week, settling -106pts (1.0%) to 10881. However, the tranny did break a new cycle high of 11148. The m/t bulls should still be seeking an eventual weekly settlement above the Dec'2018 high of 11044.
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Summary

Four of the US indexes were net higher, with two net lower.

The Nasdaq and R2K are leading the way, whilst the Dow and Transports are lagging.

The Nasdaq broke a new historic high.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead, currently +22.8%, with the Transports +18.7%. The R2K is +18.0%, the SPX +17.3%, and the NYSE comp' +14.2%. The Dow remains the laggard, but still net higher by a respectable 13.8%.
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Looking ahead

Another very busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings...

M - GOOGL, SPOT, WDC, NXP AKS, RIG
T - GE, PFE, MCD, MRK, BP, GM, SHOP, AMD, AAPL, TWLO, AMGN
W - CVS, SQ, QCOM, MRO, ZNGA, XPO, FIT
T - ABMD, TEVA, UAA, DOW, X, ATVI, GILD, SWKS
F - FCAU, CBOE
S - BRK/A

Earnings data overload!
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M - Pers' income/outlays
T - Employment costs, Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con', pending home sales
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction, EIA Pet' report

*FOMC announcement 2pm, which will detail no change in policy. There will likely be a reminder that the QT program is to begin winding down in May, and fully concluded by late Sept'. Powell will host a presser at 2.30pm, and that will drag on for around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, product'/costs, factory orders.
F - Monthly jobs, intl' trade, PMI/ISM serv' 

*as Tuesday is end month, expect more dynamic price action on higher volume.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.