Friday, 22 March 2019

Global slowdown worries

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -54pts (1.9%) at 2800. Nasdaq comp' -2.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.3% and -3.6% respectively. VIX settled +20.9% at 16.48. Near term outlook offers further cooling to around sp'2750.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly weak, and unlike Thursday, an opening reversal attempt failed, with prices spiraling lower. Lower bond yields were a particular pressure on the financials, and that dragged the rest of the market lower. The afternoon saw a bounce, but the closing hour saw another strong swing lower, settling at the low of the day, at the key 2800 threshold.


Global slowdown worries

Whilst the mainstream were very pleased with Print Central on Wednesday afternoon, its only taken a few days to see some of the cheerleaders already back to blaming the fed.  


Lets be clear, the German economy is falling into recession, and where Germany goes, the rest of the EU can be expected to follow. For now, the US econ-data isn't remotely recessionary, but further weakness can be expected.

As I've repeatedly noted, the bulls have a few cards left. The first was an announcement of end date for QT... check. Next... a US/China trade deal, which might not occur of course. The third is a rate cut... but that in itself would be the ultimate equity sell signal.. as it was in Sept'2007. 
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The peak of humanity
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Thursday, 21 March 2019

Post FOMC chatter

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +30pts (1.1%) at 2854. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.4% and +1.2% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, but there was a reversal, with equities building significant gains into the late afternoon. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling a little lower in the mid 13s.


Post FOMC chatter

Gundlach summed up the thoughts of many...


Indeed, the outlook and policy of Print Central has massively changed since Q4...


Econ-data and corporate earnings have somewhat weakened, but the real reason for the change in policy is absolutely clear...  the drop in equities from sp'2940>2346. Since late December (starting with Mester), the fed has been wheeling out officials on an increasing basis to tout more dovish monetary policy.

Even the mainstream are a little twitchy after 'more dovish than expected' policy.


Again, I see the end of QT as the precursor to a rate cut. The 'one rate hike in 2020' is to be seen as nonsense. The rate hiking cycle is complete. Yesterday's announcement of an end date for QT strongly supports that notion.
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Ohh, and BREXIT is now just eight days away. As things are, the UK is set to exit the EU Friday March 29th at 11pm GMT.

The EU have offered PM May an extension to May 22nd, but on the condition of a 'positive vote in the house of commons next week', although no one is exactly sure what that means. For what is one of the biggest decisions the UK has ever taken... this remains outright chaos. The capital markets will not be pleased if there is a 'hard exit'.
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 20 March 2019

The precursor signal

US equity indexes closed rather weak, sp -8pts (0.3%) at 2824. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -0.8% respectively. VIX settled +2.6% at 13.91.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, not helped by Trump comments in the 12pm hour that tariffs would remain (at least initially) even with a US/China trade deal. The market jumped on the press release from Print Central, but the closing hour wasn't so pretty, with most indexes settling moderately lower. Volatility was relatively subdued, settling in the upper 13s.


The precursor signal

Today's FOMC saw rates held, economic growth downgraded, no more rate hikes for rest of the year, and QT to conclude in September. The end of QT is a precursor signal to an eventual rate cut. 


I have endlessly noted how in the previous two grand cycles, the ultimate equity sell signal was a rate cut.

Fed rates & SPX, monthly


Today brought us one step closer to yours truly adding a third dashed red vertical line to the above chart
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Spring time

Green shoots... everywhere
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Goodnight from London
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