Permabear Doomster

Monday, 18 March 2019

New cycle high

US equity indexes began the week on a positive note, sp +10pts (0.4%) at 2832. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers a few moderate swings ahead of the FOMC announcement.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, with the SPX breaking a new cycle high of 2835, with a late morning cooling wave to 2821. The afternoon saw renewed upside, but holding under the high. S/t price structure is a H/S, offering 2805, then 2820, with the 2770s by Thurs'/Friday.

Volatility remained subdued, settling +1.7% at 13.10. A spike to the 15/16s would arguably sync with the sp'2770s.

Bonus chart: China, monthly

With nine trading days left of the month, the Shanghai comp' is higher for a third month, currently +5.3% at 3096. Next resistance is not until the 3400s. That would indirectly bode bullish for the US market into late spring/early summer.
--

One thing is for sure... that is not a 737MAX

Spring is almost here

Full moon is this Wednesday

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to my intraday service.
For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com

Saturday, 16 March 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.9% (SPX), +2.4% (NYSE comp'), +2.1% (R2K), +1.9% (Trans), to 1.6% (Dow).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The SPX climbed for the 10th week of 12, breaking a new cycle high of 2830, settling +79pts (2.9%) to 2822. Note the upper weekly bollinger at 2894, and that will offer resistance in the low 2900s into early April.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq comp' climbed for the 11th week of 12, breaking a new cycle high of 7714, settling +280pts (3.8%) at 7688.

Dow

The mighty Dow climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +398pts (1.6%) to 25848.

NYSE comp'

The NYSE comp' climbed for the 9th week of 12, settling +300pts (2.4%) to 12715.

R2K

The R2K climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +31pts (2.1%) to 1553.

Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed for the 9th week of 12, settling +193pts (1.9%) to 10310.
–

Summary

All six of the main US equity indexes saw very significant net weekly gains.

The Nasdaq comp' and SPX lead the way upward, with the Transports and Dow lagging.

YTD price performance:

The Nasdaq comp' is leading the way for the first time this year, currently +15.9%. The R2K +15.2%, the SPX +12.6%, with the Transports +12.4%. The NYSE comp' is +11.8%, with the Dow lagging at +10.8%.
--

Looking ahead

Earnings; OSTK, TLRY (Mon'), FDX (Tues'), MU (Wed'), NKE (Thurs'), TIF, DB (Fri')

M - Housing market index
T - Factory orders
W - EIA Pet' report

*FOMC: 2pm. Whilst rates will be held at 2.25-2.50%, its very possible an end date for QT will be announced. There will be a press conf' at 2.30pm, and that will last around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indicators,
F - Existing home sales, wholesale trade.
--

If you value my work on Blogger and Twitter, subscribe to me.
For details/latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com

Have a good weekend
--
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 15 March 2019

Quad-opex strength

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +14pts (0.5%) at 2822. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, breaking a new multi-month cycle high in the early afternoon of 2830. This was just 110pts (3.9%) from the Sept' historic high, and a monstrous 484pts (20.6%) above the Dec' low. The late afternoon saw a little cooling

Volatility was in melt mode, with the VIX breaking a new cycle low of 12.50, settling -4.6% at 12.88.
--

No sunshine for the bears.