Permabear Doomster

Wednesday, 13 March 2019

Midweek gains

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +19pts (0.7%) at 2810. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.4% respectively. Near term outlook leans to the bears for Thursday.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and battled upward into the afternoon. The SPX broke above the March 4th high of 2817, with an intra high of 2821. There was some distinct cooling in the late afternoon. Volatility was in melt mode for a fourth day, with the VIX settling in the mid 13s. The s/t cyclical setup for Thursday will lean to the equity bears.

Meanwhile...

... the BREXIT chaos continued, with a series of shocking votes in the evening. One vote saw the house vote (312/308) against leaving the EU without a deal. However, that is not legally binding, and as things are, the UK is set to leave the EU March 29th, whether parliament can agree on a deal or not.

My guess is that we will see an attempted extension to article 50, effectively delaying BREXIT, if only by two months. However, any such extension has to be agreed by all 27 member states of the EU. As some have noted, the entire situation ranks as an outright constitutional crisis.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 12 March 2019

Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2791. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow -0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and leaned upward into the afternoon, as the SPX pushed for the 2800 threshold. Whilst March 1st saw a daily close of 2803, the following day saw a bearish engulfing candle, with subsequent downside to last Friday's low of 2722.

To be decisive, the bulls need a daily close in the 2817s or higher. That would fully open the door to new historic highs. Again, I would keep in mind that the March 20th FOMC might see the fed announce an end date for QT. The mainstream would likely run with that as the excuse for another sustained push higher into end month/early April.

As for volatility, VIX melted lower for a third consecutive day, settling -3.9% at 13.77.

Another failed BREXIT vote

This evening saw the May administration lose yet another BREXIT vote, by a monstrous margin of 242/391.

Without question, its become the biggest political mess of the modern era. Its notable that whilst there is occasional talk of a second referendum on whether to leave the EU, it really is a wildly messy situation. A delay/cancellation of BREXIT still seems probable, but the clock is ticking... and runs out March 29th.
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Post storm sunset

Next full moon - fed day, March 20th.

Monday, 11 March 2019

Powerful rebound

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +40pts (1.5%) at 2783. Nasdaq comp' +2.0%. Dow +0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.9% and +1.8% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, although there was a distinct disparity between indexes.... such as Nasdaq comp' +0.9%, whilst the Dow was -0.6%, the latter weighed down by Boeing (BA).

The market battled rather powerfully higher into the late afternoon, with even the Dow turning moderately positive.Volatility was naturally in melt mode, with the VIX settling in the mid 14s.

Its notable that last Friday saw most indexes - inc' the SPX, settle with a hollow red reversal candle. Much like the black candles I regularly highlight, such upside reversal candles are never to be dismissed lightly. Today's style of price action is suggestive last Friday's low of 2722 will not be broken ahead of next week's FOMC. Further, last week's high of 2816 could be assumed will be taken out before end month, not least if the Fed announce an end date for QT.

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Sunshine ahead of another Atlantic storm