Reversal into the weekend

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 2743. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow -0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.1% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Overnight markets were ugly, especially in China and Japan. The US monthly jobs data from the BLS wasn't inspiring...

Indeed, the first thoughts of many... 'is 20k a typo?'. A further annoyance to the market was that average earnings were above expectations. Worse... and overlooked by (almost) everyone, the working week ticked down -0.1 to 34.4hrs. This drop is equivalent to a net job loss of at least 250k.

Was is just a 'fluky number' as Kudlow - wheeled out in early morning, deemed it? The macro-econ bears will need to see at least a couple more such prints to suggest a major economic turn has occurred, rather than just some weakening since Q4.

Anyway, equities opened broadly lower, but found a floor from a secondary gap of 2722. The afternoon saw choppy weakness, but the morning low held into the weekend.

Volatility broke a new cycle high of 18.33, but with a latter day equity recovery, the VIX cooled, settling in the low 16s.

The settling index candles (even in the transports) were of the hollow red type, and lean s/t bullish for Mon/Tuesday. 
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The madness of the ECB

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -22pts (0.8%) at 2748. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.0% and -0.9% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, and it was enough to break the Monday low of sp'2767. With that break, prices cooled into late morning. There was a bounce, but it failed to hold, with a new intraday low of 2739 in the closing hour.

Volatility picked up for a fourth consecutive day, with the VIX settling in the mid 16s.


The madness of the ECB

The ECB announced that rates will be held at -0.4% until at least end 2019, rather than just this summer. TLTRO 3 is set to begin in September, but that will do nothing of any significance to stop the broader European economy from falling into recession.

The Euro had a rough day. In late afternoon, the Euro/USD printed 1.1176, the lowest level since June 2017.

XEU, monthly

Even the mainstream cheerleaders are starting to wonder if the Jan'2017 low of 1.0341 will be tested.
The dollar doomers still refuse to acknowledge that the USD remains king of FIAT land. There is ZERO reason to believe that will be changing any time soon.

Ohh, and as for Draghi - the CEO of the EU branch of Print Central, I'm sure he is itching to quietly exit his job this year. He can't possibly not realise the endgame isn't far off now.

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Ten years from six six six

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -18pts (0.6%) at 2771. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -2.0% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and saw choppy weakness into mid afternoon. The 2pm hour saw a micro bounce, partly on the excuse of the fed beige book. However, the closing hour broke a new intraday low, settling just above the key Monday intra low of 2767.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +6.8% at 15.74. A push to the key 20 threshold looks a given.


Ten years from six six six

sp'monthly

March 6th 2009 saw an intraday low of 666.79... and the rest is history.

A little flashback, back when 360p resolution was considered bearable, and we were all somewhat younger...



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