QT to be cut to zero

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1.5pts at 2792. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.2% respectively.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but the bears could only manage moderate declines to 2775. There was a rally into the early afternoon, with a touch of renewed weakness into the close. Volatility saw the 16s, but then resumed melt mode, and settling -3.1% at 14.70.


QT to be cut to zero

Powell effectively confirmed today, that the balance sheet reduction program, aka Quantitative tightening (QT), will be cut to zero before year end.

The end of QT is over a year ahead of schedule, as initially outlined last Sept/October. A rate cut will then be next, and that will merit as the ultimate equity sell signal... as it was in Sept'2007.

I am open to the more bullish scenario of new index historic highs, before QT ends, and the subsequent rate cut. The Thursday/end month settlement will be very important.
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Another exceptionally warm day in the London metropolis

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Leaning weak

 US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2793. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.7% respectively. VIX settled +2.1% at 15.17. Near term outlook offers cooling (if choppy) into end month.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, partly pressured via weakness in Asia/European markets.

Powell appeared before the US Senators...

... and it was an especially tedious few hours. Wednesday's should be less painful, and far more lively, as its chaired by the infamous Maxine Waters. AOC, aka... Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will no doubt garner mainstream media attention, and it will be interesting to see what she has to say to the CEO of print central. I don't say it entirely free of sarcasm, but might she ask the fed to print $10trn, to help fund her green new deal?
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21c/70f, skipping spring, straight into summer.

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New cycle highs

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2796. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.1%. Near term outlook offers early Tuesday weakness.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened with new cycle highs, helped via a late Sunday tweet from Trump confirming that the March 1st trade/tariff deadline was cancelled. Indeed... its been outright cancelled, rather that just delayed/extended, as the US President appears confident a trade agreement with the Chinese will be reached.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX breaking a new cycle low of 13.44, and settling in the
upper 14s.


Bonus chart: China, monthly

With just three trading days left of the month, the Chinese equity market is currently net higher by an extremely powerful 14.6% at 2961. It'd seem giant psy'3K will be tested before end month. Bodes bullish for other world markets into the spring.
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More pre-BREXIT escapees

Sunset, 18c, 64f.... bullish!

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