Monday, 25 February 2019

New cycle highs

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2796. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.1%. Near term outlook offers early Tuesday weakness.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened with new cycle highs, helped via a late Sunday tweet from Trump confirming that the March 1st trade/tariff deadline was cancelled. Indeed... its been outright cancelled, rather that just delayed/extended, as the US President appears confident a trade agreement with the Chinese will be reached.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX breaking a new cycle low of 13.44, and settling in the
upper 14s.


Bonus chart: China, monthly


With just three trading days left of the month, the Chinese equity market is currently net higher by an extremely powerful 14.6% at 2961. It'd seem giant psy'3K will be tested before end month. Bodes bullish for other world markets into the spring.
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More pre-BREXIT escapees

Sunset, 18c, 64f.... bullish!
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 23 February 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was another bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 0.2% (Trans), 0.6% (SPX, Dow), 0.7% (Nasdaq comp', NYSE comp'), to 1.3% (R2K).


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX climbed for a fourth consecutive week, the 8th of 9, settling +17pts (0.6%) to 2792, having broken a new cycle high of 2794. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for an eighth week, with zero sign of a turn.

Note the upper weekly bollinger at 2873, which is declining 20/25pts a week. In early March, it will be prime resistance within 2820/10s.
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Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq climbed for a NINTH consecutive week, +55pts (0.7%) to 7527.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for a NINTH consecutive week, +148pts (0.6%) to 26031. The Oct'2018 historic high of 26951 is just 920pts (3.5%) higher.


NYSE comp'


The master index climbed for the 7th week of 9, +91pts (0.7%) to 12654, the highest settlement since early Oct'2018.


R2K


The R2K climbed for a NINTH consecutive week, settling +20pts (1.3%) to 1590. Note the upper weekly bollinger at 1635, another 3% higher.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed for a fourth consecutive week, the 8th week of 9, settling +25pts (0.2%) to 10593.
–


Summary

All six equity indexes saw net weekly gains.

The R2K is leading the way upward, with the Transports lagging.

YTD price performance:


The R2K is leading the way, currently net higher for the year by 17.9%. The Transports is +15.5%, with the Nasdaq comp' +13.4%. The Dow and NYSE comp' are both +11.6%, with the SPX +11.4%
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Looking ahead 

There will be a light sprinkling of earnings, some econ-data, and more importantly, two appearances by the CEO of Print central.

M - ETSY, SHAK
T - HD, M, LNG, WW
W - LOW, LB, CHK, SQ, BOX
T - JD, JCP, AMTD
F -
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M - Wholesale trade, Dallas Fed manu'
T - Housing starts, Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, consumer con', Rich' fed

Powell is due Tuesday morning, for the six monthly report to the US Senate.

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W - Factory orders, pending home sales, EIA Pet' report.

Powell is due Wed' morning, for the six monthly report to the US House fin' services committee, as chaired by Maxine Waters. It will be 'curious' to see what Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has to say. Perhaps she should ask if the fed would consider QE of $10trn, to help fund the Green New Deal?

US President Trump is scheduled to begin a two day meeting (Hanoi, Vietnam) with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and that will no doubt capture huge mainstream attention.
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T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q4 (2.4% est') , Chicago PMI (55.8 est')
F - Vehicle sales, pers' income/outlays (Dec' & Jan'), PMI/ISM manu', consumer sent'

*Thursday is end month, so expect more dynamic price action/volume. 
**Friday is the US deadline for raising tariffs, but it'll very likely be extended.
***The monthly jobs data (due March 1st) is delayed until March 8th.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 22 February 2019

Climbing into the weekend

US equity indexes ended the week on a broadly positive note, sp +17pts (0.6%) at 2792. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.9% respectively.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, helped via Asian and European market strength. The SPX broke a new cycle high of 2794, which was fully confirmed/supported via a new cycle low in the VIX of 13.67. The afternoon saw a little cooling, but then Trump made an appearance with the Chinese VP... resulting in a mini ramp.


As things are, the March 1st scheduled hike in tariffs is almost certainly going to be delayed.
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Climbing into the weekend

A few minutes of serenity... whilst BREXIT is another day closer.
--
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Goodnight from London
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