Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Eight of ten

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +10pts (0.4%) at 2584. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.4% and +0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers a mini washout on Thursday, but regardless... the sp'2620/30s appear on track.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Despite a few intraday swings, the spx managed to settle net higher for the 8th day of 10. Whilst Thursday might see a mini washout (I can think of a few excuses), the 2620/30s look on track. I'm already starting to wonder about the OPEX of Jan'18th. Would the market makers not want to whack things back down to psy'2500? Its just a thought.

Meanwhile, volatility saw a kooky print of 22.80 in early morning, but settled in the upper 19s. The 16/15s would likely sync with the low/mid 2600s.
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Bonus chart: Japan, monthly


Like most other world markets, the Nikkei is starting the year strong, currently +2.1% at 20427. However, things only turn back to bullish >21k, and a monthly settlement above that appears very unlikely. The recent break of l/t trend is not to be dismissed lightly!
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Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Another day higher

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +24pts (1.0%) at 2574. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.6% and +1.5% respectively. VIX settled -1.6% at 20.47. Near term outlook offers the sp'2620/30s.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Suffice to say, opening gains... turning to fractional declines, but then a secondary wave to settle net higher. Volatility saw the 22s, but then settling in the mid 20s. 
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Another day closer to summer
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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 7 January 2019

You will resent its absence

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +17pts (0.7%) at 2549. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +1.7% respectively. VIX settled +0.1% at 21.40. Near term outlook offers further upside to natural target of the sp'2620/30s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Equities began the week on a bullish note, with the spx climbing for the 6th day of 8.

Volatility saw an early high of 22.71, and then resumed melt mode, settling fractionally higher in the mid 21s. The black candle leans s/t bearish volatility, and by default... s/t bullish equities.


You will resent its absence

"Do not my friends, become addicted to water. It will take hold of you, and you will resent its absence" - Immortan Joe

The same notion can be applied to equity upside for the bulls, who are getting rather confident again, having clawed upward from the Dec'26th low of 2346. The mid/long term bulls really need a monthly close back in the mid 2700s. That sure doesn't look likely this month.. or next.
--
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Goodnight from London
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