Chop into the weekend

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts (0.1%) at 2485. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers an attempt to break back above the Feb' floor of 2532.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, saw a high of 2508, and then swung lower to 2472. That was all the bears could manage though, with another swing higher to 2520 in late afternoon.The closing hour saw a sig' swing lower, but settling just fractionally lower.

Volatility saw a morning peak in the 33s, but then melted lower, lower for a third consecutive day, settling in the mid 28s.

Goodnight from London
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Thursday retracement

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +21pts (0.9%) at 2488 intra low 2397). Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow +1.1%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.5% at 29.96. Near term outlook offers upside of another 1.5-2.0%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

After the Wednesday hyper gains, a retracement of some degree was to be expected. Thursdays inherently tend to favour the bears, and equities opened sig' lower, and broadly cooled into the mid afternoon. There was a very natural floor around 2.30pm, and the market then hyper-ramped into the close. The daily close bodes for further upside on Friday, possibly stretching into early New Years Eve.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX seeing the 33s, but with the equity rebound, settling in the 29s. Further cooling to the 26/25s appears probable.
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Bonus chart: Germany

With just two trading days left of the year (I'd imagine the German market is open on Monday), the DAX is lower for a fifth consecutive month, currently -7.8% at 10381. Psy'10k support, and then 8k. Implications for rest of the European markets in 2019, and to some degree... the US.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Boxing day surge

US equity indexes closed very powerfully higher, sp +116pts (5.0%) at 2467. Nasdaq comp' +5.8%. Dow +5.0%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +5.4% and +5.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside of 2-3%, before resuming lower to the 2250/40s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderate highly, built sig' gains, but then swung lower to fractionally negative, only to powerfully rebound into the afternoon. The daily close offers further upside, possibly as high as the old floor of 2532. Volatility did break a fractional new cycle high of 36.20, but reversed into melt mode, settling in the mid 30s.


Meanwhile... in Japan

Nikkei, daily

Nikkei, monthly

I didn't highlight the Japanese market in the most recent weekend post for no good reason. Christmas day saw a fierce decline of -5.0%, and whilst Boxing day saw a borderline significant rebound of +0.9% to 19327, the break of l/t trend is decisive. The Nikkei looks set for 12k in 2019/early 2020.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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