Fed induced upside

US equity indexes closed powerfully higher, sp +61pts (2.3%) at 2743. Nasdaq comp' +2.9%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +2.5%. VIX settled -2.8% at 18.49. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave into the weekend/end month settlement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened moderately higher on hopes of soothing talk from Powell. The gains were shaky though, with the spx' coming close to breakeven, before swinging back upward. The Powell speech was seen as Goldilocks, with equities soaring into early afternoon.

The usual fedspeak from the CEO of print central

Despite strong equity gains, volatility relatively held up, with the VIX settling in the mid 18s. The VIX is often a subtle tell, and equity bulls should be concerned that the VIX did NOT confirm today's equity strength. S/t outlook offers a cooling wave into the weekend/end month.


*Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With just two trading days left of the month, the DAX is lower for a 4th consecutive month, currently -1.3% at 11298. There is near zero sign of a floor/turn. The German market decisively broke the l/t trend in October, and looks vulnerable all the way to 8k.
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Awaiting Powell

US equity indexes closed mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2682. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +0.6% at 19.02. Near term outlook offers the 2690/700 zone, before another rollover into end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, on the excuse of Monday-AH trade comments from Trump. Equities did reverse by mid morning, with a number of indexes turning fractionally positive. The afternoon saw further chop, leaning on the upward side.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling fractionally higher in the low 19s.
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Awaiting Powell

Wednesday will see Powell speak at the Economic Club of New York, and will garner live coverage on the financial networks.

The mainstream want to be assured that Print Central will be data dependent across 2019, rather than the market's concern of a 'base case of 3 or 4 hikes'. I'm sure Powell has a carefully scripted speech, that will attempt to placate the capital markets. The Dec'19th FOMC is still set to see rates hiked by another 25bps to a new target range of 2.25-2.50%.

Once Powell is out of the way, the market will be vulnerable to a cooling wave into end month, not least on continuing trade uncertainty.  As things are, we're still on track for an outright bearish monthly settlement.

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Bulls running out of time

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +40pts (1.5%) at 2673. Nasdaq comp' +2.1% at 7081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +1.2% respectively. VIX settled -12.2% at 18.90. Near term outlook offers further upside to the 2690/2700 zone, but that won't be enough to prevent another bearish monthly settlement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a positive note, with the sp' settling +1.5%. Volatility was in melt mode, with the VIX back under the key 20 threshold.


Bulls running out of time

sp'monthly3

With just four trading days left of November, the spx is -1.4%. A monthly settlement above the key 10MA (2744) looks out of range, even if Powell and the G20 are net positive news items this week. Note the red Elder candle, which if it holds into the Friday close, would be the first since Feb'2016. A bearish November close will give extra credence to the October settlement.
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