Awaiting Powell

US equity indexes closed mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2682. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +0.6% at 19.02. Near term outlook offers the 2690/700 zone, before another rollover into end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, on the excuse of Monday-AH trade comments from Trump. Equities did reverse by mid morning, with a number of indexes turning fractionally positive. The afternoon saw further chop, leaning on the upward side.

Volatility was itself subdued, with the VIX settling fractionally higher in the low 19s.
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Awaiting Powell

Wednesday will see Powell speak at the Economic Club of New York, and will garner live coverage on the financial networks.

The mainstream want to be assured that Print Central will be data dependent across 2019, rather than the market's concern of a 'base case of 3 or 4 hikes'. I'm sure Powell has a carefully scripted speech, that will attempt to placate the capital markets. The Dec'19th FOMC is still set to see rates hiked by another 25bps to a new target range of 2.25-2.50%.

Once Powell is out of the way, the market will be vulnerable to a cooling wave into end month, not least on continuing trade uncertainty.  As things are, we're still on track for an outright bearish monthly settlement.

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Bulls running out of time

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +40pts (1.5%) at 2673. Nasdaq comp' +2.1% at 7081. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +1.2% respectively. VIX settled -12.2% at 18.90. Near term outlook offers further upside to the 2690/2700 zone, but that won't be enough to prevent another bearish monthly settlement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a positive note, with the sp' settling +1.5%. Volatility was in melt mode, with the VIX back under the key 20 threshold.


Bulls running out of time

sp'monthly3

With just four trading days left of November, the spx is -1.4%. A monthly settlement above the key 10MA (2744) looks out of range, even if Powell and the G20 are net positive news items this week. Note the red Elder candle, which if it holds into the Friday close, would be the first since Feb'2016. A bearish November close will give extra credence to the October settlement.
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -4.4% (Dow), -4.3% (Nasdaq comp'), -3.8% (sp'500), -2.9% (NYSE comp'), -2.5% (R2K), to -2.0% (Trans).


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp'500 fell for the 6th week of 9, settling -3.8% to 2632. The Oct' low of 2603 will likely fail to hold, and that will offer a challenge of the Feb' low of 2532... another 3.8% lower.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq declined for the 6th week of 8, settling -4.3% to 6938. Next support is the Feb' low of 6630, which is clearly viable within the immediate term. The bulls can't get confident again until >7600, and that does not look probable in the remainder of this year.


Dow

The mighty Dow is leading the broader market lower, settling -1127pts (4.4%) to 24285. The weekly candle is ugly, and leans to further weakness into end month/early December. Support at the April low of 23344, and then its technically empty air to giant psy' 20K.


NYSE comp'

The master index settled -2.9% to 12036... notably just below key price threshold. Next support (via monthly charts) are the 11400s.


R2K

The R2k fell for the 9th week of 12, settling -2.5% to 1488. Whilst it could be argued the weekly candle is a little spiky on the lower side, there really isn't much support until the Feb' low of 1436, a mere 52pts (3.5%) lower.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports was once again resilient against the main market (due to ongoing WTIC/fuel downside), but still settling sig' lower, -2.0% to 10369. Its notable that this index/sector has already broken below the Feb' lows.
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Summary

All six of the main US equity indexes settled significantly lower.

The Dow and Nasdaq are leading the way downward, whilst the Transports remain relatively resilient.

YTD price performance:

Only the Nasdaq remains net higher for the year, and by just 0.5%. The spx -1.5%, with the Dow -1.7%. The Transports are -2.3%, the R2K -3.0%, with the NYSE comp' -6.0%.
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Looking ahead 

The weekend of Nov'24/25 will see all manner of BREXIT related discussions and votes, which will have significant bearing on how the week opens.

More broadly, the market will be focused on the G20, which is being hosted in Argentina. The event begins Nov'26th, with the 'Leaders summit' spanning Nov'30th>Dec'1st. 
For details: https://www.g20.org/en/calendar


M -
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'.

W - GDP Q3 (2nd' print), intl' trade, new home sales, EIA Pet' report, FOMC mins. Powell is speaking at the economic club in NYC. That might garner live coverage.

T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, pending home sales
F - Chicago PMI
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.