Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.2% (Dow), -2.1% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.6% (sp'500), -1.4% (R2K), -1.1% (NYSE comp'), to +0.6% (Trans). Outlook offers s/t choppy upside into Thanksgiving, and then resuming lower.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The spx settled -44pts (1.6%) to 2736, having swung upward from a Thursday low of 2670. Note the macd (black line) at 1.774, and set to turn outright negative, for the first time since March 2016. The Oct' low of 2603 looks vulnerable in early December, with secondary support of the Feb' low of 2532.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq settled -2.1% at 7247. Price structure across the last four weeks could be argued is a bear flag, offering far lower levels into December. Support 6922, then the Feb' low of 6630.


Dow

The mighty Dow settled -2.2% to 25413. Note resistance around 26k, where the sellers have been appearing. Thanksgiving week offers a challenge to the 50dma in the 25700/800s, but regardless of any holiday week gains, further downside into early December appears probable. Support 24122, and then the April low of 23344. Any sustained price action under the 23300s would be suggestive of grander cooling to the giant 20K threshold.


NYSE comp'

The master index settled -1.1% to 12400. Note that the nyse comp' is one of two indexes that have recently traded under the Feb' lows. Support 11820, and then psy' 10K, near the June 2016 low of 9918.


R2K

The R2K settled -1.4% at 1527. Support 1459, and then the Feb' low of 1436. Technically, this index is mid/long term broken.


Trans

The transports was very resilient to the broader market, climbing for a third consecutive week, managing a moderate net weekly gain of +0.6% to 10583. S/t price structure could be argued is a bear flag. Support 9757, and then 9k. A sixth consecutive net weekly decline in WTIC is clearly helping to prop up transportation stocks.
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Summary

Five indexes settled sig' lower, whilst one settled moderately higher.

The Dow lead the way lower, whilst the Transports was resilient.

Price structure across the past four weeks is a viable bear flag, offering further very sig' downside into end month/early December.

YTD price performance:

The Nasdaq is holding a yearly gain of 5.0%, with the Dow +2.8%, and the spx +2.3%. The Transports is -0.3%, the R2K -0.5%, and the nyse comp' -3.2%.
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Looking ahead

Key earnings; JD, LB (Mon'), TGT, LOW, KSS, GPS, ADI (Tues'), DE (Wed')

It will be a very light 3.5 trading day week, and for most, it should be a case of 'turn your screen off, and come back Nov'26th.'

M - Housing market index
T - Housing starts
W - Durable goods orders, weekly jobs, consumer sent', existing home sales, leading indi', and the latest EIA Pet' and NG reports.

T - CLOSED, for Thanksgiving
F - Early CLOSE at 1.00pm EST
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Opex chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 2736. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers choppy upside ahead of the Thanksgiving break, but then a very bearish wave into end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, but there wasn't any real selling behind it, and indexes quickly reversed. Trump trade comments directly saw the market spike higher in the 12pm hour, but those gains soon faded. The afternoon saw further chop... carrying into the weekend.

Volatility saw an opening high in the low 21s, and then resumed melt mode, settling in the low 18s.
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Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

The Nikkei is currently net lower for a second month, -1.1% at 21680, sitting on l/t rising trend. A Nov' close <20900s would be decisive, and offer soft support of around 19000. Note price momentum, which is increasingly negative.
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Goodnight from London
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Short term floor

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +28pts (1.1%) at 2730. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.5% and +1.4% respectively. VIX settled -6.0% at 19.98. Near term outlook offers choppy upside into opex, and across Thanksgiving/holiday week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, and saw an opening reversal to 2696, only to then spiral lower to 2670.  Late morning saw a reversal, with the spx turning fractionally higher. The afternoon saw a decisive push upward, breaking s/t declining trend... and giving clarity that 2670 is a s/t floor. The late afternoon did remain very choppy, settling at 2730. 

Volatility saw a mixed day, tagging the minor gap in the 22/23s, but with equities swinging upward, settling net lower in the upper 19s. On balance, today saw a s/t equity low, and the bulls should be able to control things into and across next week. The issue is how the month will settle.
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The ongoing BREXIT debacle

Another 500 or so, make a successful escape from the UK

To yours truly, it was a mess from the start. The political establishment - including May (conservative/republican) wanted the UK to remain. Then the vote saw a fractional majority of the UK vote to leave.

Democracy in the modern era, being what is it, the 'mob rule' of 51%, won, as it was a case of 'to hell with what the other 49% want'.

Today saw May battling to hold onto her role as UK Prime Minister. Let us not forget, she personally was responsible for calling a snap election in summer 2017, one of the worse political decisions ever seen in the western world. Her parliamentary majority was lost, and she had to form a coalition to stay in power.  

May's BREXIT agreement/plan with the EU is supported by barely a fifth, even those who do want to leave the EU.

The world capital markets aren't buying her political spiel, with the GBP currently 1.27s to the King of FIAT land. I still expect eventual parity, and frankly... I have no reason to complain. Yours truly didn't choose to get paid in USD for no good reason.
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Goodnight from London
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