Permabear Doomster

Friday, 9 November 2018

Falling into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -25pts (0.9%) at 2781. Nasdaq comp' -1.6% at 7406. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -1.8% respectively. VIX settled +3.8% at 17.36. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the 2700/2680 zone, before resuming upward into Thanksgiving week.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, with the bears breaking s/t rising trend (from the sp'2603 low) by mid morning. From there, prices spiraled to 2764, before a latter day rally to 2790, and settling at 2781.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX seeing a high of 18.41, and settling in the mid 17s. S/t outlook offers at least the sp'2730s, if not the 2700/2680 zone, the latter of which would equate to VIX 22/23s.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 8 November 2018

Post FOMC cooling

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -7pts (0.2%) at 2806. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled +2.2% at 16.72. Near term outlook offers s/t cooling of 2.5-3.5% ahead of next opex. The grander issue remains how November will settle.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and saw minor chop into the FOMC announcement. The late afternoon saw a distinct cooling wave, as s/t price momentum now favours the bears.

Volatility saw a new cycle low of 16.09, but then swung upward, settling +2.2% at 16.72. S/t outlook offers equity cooling, with the VIX set to at least test the key 20 threshold.
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Meanwhile... (full screen recommended!)

NASA continues to make reasonable progress with the Orion, as part of the SLS program. However, when you consider that SpaceX are re-using their launch vehicles, it makes the SLS program look grossly outdated. see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System

Reading around, I see many within the industry believe that we'll likely only see 3 or 4 SLS vehicles ever launched, not least once the SpaceX BFR is launching on a regular basis.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Tuesday, 6 November 2018

Melt up into the results

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +17pts (0.6%) at 2755. Nasdaq comp' +0.6% at 7375. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.0% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -0.2% at 19.91. Near term outlook offers a post election washout to the sp'2690/80s, before better opportunity of the 2770/2810 zone.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of moderate swings, seeing a low of 2737, but then battling upward into the close, settling at 2755. Volatility was itself subdued, settling just under the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook offers a spike in the VIX, with some equity cooling. More broadly though, the sp'2800s with VIX in the mid teens is due.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

We're only four trading days into the month, but its notable that the DAX is currently +0.3% at 11484. The index/market is m/t bearish, having lost the l/t trend from the 2009 collapse lows. Its very difficult to see the US market breaking new historic highs if German equities don't recover.
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Open day!

Wednesday will be open day at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com

For the non-subscribers out there, you will be able to follow my semi-coherent ramblings across the day. It should be interesting, as we'll have the market responding to the midterm election results.
First post: pre-market brief, no later than 8.30am eastern.
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Summer is a faded memory