Permabear Doomster

Monday, 8 October 2018

Bearish start

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1pt at 2884. Nasdaq comp' -0.7% at 7735. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +5.9% at 15.69. Near term outlook offers a bounce.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a bearish start to the week, not helped with weak EU/Asian markets. The sp' broke below the Friday low, with the VIX correspondingly breaking above its Friday high. There was yet another latter day recovery from a low of 2862 to settle at 2884. The daily candle is a hollow red reversal, and offers provisional sign of a s/t floor.

Volatility spiked, with the VIX seeing a new multi-month high of 18.38. With equities recovering, the VIX cooled, settling +5.9% at 15.69. Note the black-fail spiky candle, which provisionally marks a s/t peak.
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Bonus charts...

China, monthly

Monday was the first actual trading day of the month for China, and it wasn't a great start, with the Shanghai comp' settling -3.7% to 2716. So long as the Sept' low of 2644 holds, no concerns. However, if that does fail, then it would merit alarm bells, especially if the DAX also unravels...

Germany, monthly

The DAX is a key market, and if the l/t trend from 2009 is decisively broken and settled under... that would merit alarm bells. Technically, any bearish monthly close would offer 8k... which is a long way down.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 6 October 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -3.8% (R2K), -3.2% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.5% (Trans), -1.0% (sp'500), -0.7% (NYSE comp'), to -0.04% (Dow). The m/t trend remains bullish.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)

sp'500

The sp' saw a net weekly decline of -1.0%, having swung from 2939 to settle at 2885. Note the key 10MA at 2776, which is 109pts (3.8%) lower. Unless the bears can break AND hold under that for a monthly close, the m/t trend has to be deemed as still m/t bullish.

Big target resistance zone of 2950/3047 is indeed near. A break above the Fibonacci 2.618x extension/extrapolation of 3047 will offer far higher levels, and its notable the Dow has already decisively broken above its equivalent of 26702.

Original year end target of 3245 looks a stretch. However, consider that if we're trading at 3000 in mid November (notably after the midterms), target will be 245pts (8.2%), and would still be just about viable. Any progress in US/China trade relations would clearly help.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq comp' settled the week net lower by a very significant -3.2% to 7788.

Dow

The mighty Dow settled -11pts (0.04%) to 26447, but having broken a new historic high of 26951.

NYSE comp'

The nyse comp' settled -0.7% to 12991.

R2K

The R2K was the weakest index this week, settling lower by a very significant -3.8% to 1632.

Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, settled -1.5% to 11206. Higher WTIC/fuel prices remain an issue, but are so far still being over-ridden by an expanding US/world economy.
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Summary

All six US indexes were net lower for the week, lead by the R2K and Nasdaq comp'.

The Dow broke a new historic high, settling the week just fractionally lower.

YTD performance:

The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead the way, currently +12.8%, with the spx +7.9%, and the Dow +7.0%. The R2K is now +6.3%, with the Trans +5.6%, and the nyse comp' lagging at +1.4%.
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Looking ahead

Key earnings: DAL (Wed'), JPM, C, WFC, PNC (Fri')

M - Columbus day - US bond market CLOSED. Equity market open.
T -
W - PPI, wholesale trade,
T - CPI, weekly jobs, EIA Pet' and NG report
F - Import/export prices, consumer sent'
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 5 October 2018

Falling into the weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -16pts (0.5%) at 2885. Nasdaq comp' -1.1% at 7788. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +4.2% at 14.82. Near term outlook offers another attempt to tag the upside gap of 2919/25.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, seeing an early high of 2909, but that was all the bulls could manage. With bond yields continuing to rise, the algo-bots took it as another excuse to resume lower. The sp' saw an afternoon low of 2869, but then saw a late day ramp to settle at 2885.

Volatility printed an early low of 13.46 (11.72 in pre-market), and then whipsawed back upward, seeing a high of 17.36, and then cooling to settle in the upper 14s. S/t outlook offers equity upside to at least sp'2919/25 zone, which should equate to VIX 12/11s.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

The DAX is currently -1.1% at 12111. It is very important for the European, and to some extent, the US equity bulls, for this market to resume back upward. If l/t trend from 2009 is broken, that will merit alarm bells, as its effectively open air to 8k.
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Not the most bullish of ends to the week