Higher rates are bullish

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts (0.1%) at 2907. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.4% respectively. VIX settled -8.1% to 11.75. Near term outlook offers Thursday cooling, but likely no lower than around 2895/90.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equity indexes were pretty mixed today, with the Dow moderately higher, but with tech leaning somewhat weak. No new historic highs were seen, but they are clearly coming. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling in the 11s. S/t outlook offers moderate equity weakness on Thursday, but likely no lower than the sp'2895/90 zone.
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Higher rates are bullish

Yours truly has (vainly) tried for a few years to highlight something which the mainstream have long feared... higher interest rates/bond yields. The fed are clearly set to raise rates next week (+25bps to 2.00-2.25%), and also at the Dec'19th meeting.

Higher rates ARE inherently bullish for the US financials. Indeed, fears that the fed won't hike a third or fourth time this year, have been a drag on the financials since the early spring.

BAC, monthly

Today saw a bull flag provisionally confirmed. A push >33s is due, and that will offer the 38/40 zone, whether by year end (a stretch) or a more viable spring 2019. If I'm right, very bullish sector/main market implications into/across 2019.
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Summer has almost fully faded

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Tariffs, what tariffs?

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +15pts (0.4%) at 2904. Nasdaq comp' +0.7% to 7956. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled +0.4%. VIX settled -6.5% at 12.79. Near term outlook offers another cooling wave, that might well last into early Thursday.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Those equity bulls who had been watching the early overnight futures action were naturally concerned for the Tuesday open. Yet, the Asian markets of China and Japan swung upward into their respective closes, and that helped turn the US futures marginally positive. The sp' built gains into the mid afternoon. The closing hour saw a subtle rollover, and it does threaten another cooling wave, which might stretch all the way into early Thursday.

Regardless of any cooling, today's gains were very indicative of the underlying m/t super strength. Mr Market knows the trade/tariff concerns are almost entirely inconsequential to the bigger picture. Big target of 2950/3047 isn't far away.

With equity strength, volatility naturally cooled, with the VIX settling in the 12s.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With a late day surge, the Shanghai comp' settled +1.8%, and that brings the net monthly decline to just -0.9%. If the SSEC can settle Sept' net higher, it'd offer a provisional sign of a m/t floor. To be decisive, I'd need to see a monthly close back above the 10MA, currently at 3053.
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Headed to the moon

US equity indexes closed on a broadly weak note, sp -16pts (0.5%) at 2888. Nasdaq comp' -1.4% at 7895. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and -1.1% respectively. VIX settled +13.3% at 13.68. Near term outlook offers a turnaround Tuesday, and more broadly... this market still looks headed for the moon into 2019.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a weak note, with most indexes opening fractionally lower, and leaning increasingly weak into the mid afternoon. Volatility picked up, but the VIX is still only seeing the 13s, which does not merit any mainstream hysteria.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With an overnight decline of -1.1%, the Shanghai comp' is currently net lower for the month by a very significant -2.7%. The Jan/Feb' 2016 low of 2638 is indeed very near. Under that... psy' levels 2500, then 2k. I remain wondering just what the communists are thinking. 
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Headed to the moon

This evening, 6pm PT (2am BST), SpaceX will announce their first private/commercial passenger, who will be on the BFR that will do a loop around the moon. I'd believe that launch will be in 2020/21... which really isn't that far away.

Details/webcast: https://www.spacex.com/webcast




I can't emphasise the importance of BFR, a reuseable vehicle able to do intercontinental hops for Earth, or for travel to the moon and Mars. Massive long term implications for humanity itself.
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Yours truly is rather hypnotised by any moon light. The following three pics (no photoshop, all untouched), taken with a Canon 730. The first is natural, the second is with 100x zoom, and the third with max zoom of 160x.  Frankly, I think they are pretty incredible for what is just a handheld consumer camera.

Natural view

100x zoom

160x (40x optical, with 4x digital).

Ohh, and the next full moon is next Monday, Sept'24th, a day after the official start of autumn.

Goodnight from London
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