Permabear Doomster

Friday, 17 August 2018

Ending the week positive

US equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, sp +9pts (0.3%) at 2850. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is highly uncertain, as whilst we have three downside gaps, new historic highs are clearly viable next week.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened a little weak, seeing a low of 2833. From there, the market battled upward. A story in mid-afternoon about US/China trade negotiations saw a mini ramp to 2855. The market makers worked their magic, with an opex settlement of sp'2850.

Volatility was broadly subdued, and melted lower into the week, settling in the mid 12s. S/t outlook offers new historic highs in the sp'500, which would see VIX cool to the 11/10s.
--

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Strong USD concerns

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -21pts (0.7%) at 2818. The Nasdaq comp' settled -1.2% at 7774. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers capitulation in the sp'2760s, before swinging back upward.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, dragged lower by significant weakness in other world markets. The sp' unravelled to 2802 in early morning, before a series of moderate swings that continued into the late afternoon.

Volatility naturally spiked higher, with the VIX seeing a peak of 16.86, the highest level since July 2nd. There was cooling into the close, with the VIX settling in the mid 14s.
--

USD, monthly (EOD Aug'15th)

The King of fiat land remains the USD. Note the macd (blue bar histogram) bullish cross, as momentum is now fractionally positive. A move from the DXY 96s to the giant 100 threshold isn't a bold target, given another 2-3 months. If correct, bearish implications... especially for the precious metals... within a rising rate environment.
--

Open day

Thursday Aug'16th will be open day at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com, and for you non-subscribers out there, it will give you an opportunity to follow me across the day. Thursdays tend to be pretty dynamic, so it should be an interesting day, not least with Nvidia earnings due in AH. First post will appear by 8.30am EDT.

Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Tuesday bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +18pts (0.6%) at 2840. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -9.9% at 13.31. Near term outlook threatens another swing lower from the 2850s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately, but the gains were pretty shaky, and the market almost came close to turning negative. The buyers did appear though, and the market battled upward into the closing hour.

Volatility naturally cooled, with the VIX settling in the 13s. S/t outlook offers the sp'2850s with VIX 12/11s. Thursday will lean to the equity bears, whilst Friday will favour chop for opex.
--