Saturday, 4 August 2018

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for world equity markets, with net monthly gains ranging from 8.9% (Brazil), 4.7% (USA), 4.1% (Germany), +3.5% (France), 2.6% (Spain), 1.6% (Russia), 1.2% (Australia), 1.1% (Japan), 1.0% (China), to 0.5% (Greece) Near term outlook offers further upside into Sept/Oct.


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow gained 1143pts (4.7%) to settle July at 25415. Note the monthly settlement above the key 10MA. Underlying macd (green bar histogram) is seeing the downward swing in price momentum from January level out. A bearish macd cross is currently being avoided, and this bodes well for at least another few months.


Germany – DAX


The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, saw the DAX +499pts (4.1%) to 12805, notably above the key 10MA. We have a very clear divergence between price momentum and actual price across 2015>2018. Things would turn exceptionally bearish if core rising trend is broken, and in August that is currently around 11800s.


Japan – Nikkei


Japanese equities gained 249pts (1.1%) to 22553. The m/t trend remains bullish. The long term outlook remains 'beyond problematic', as a demographic collapse is inevitable.


China – Shanghai comp'


Chinese equities swung from an intra month low of 2691, to settle +29pts (1.0%) at 2876. The July candle offers a spike floor, having cooled from January. The Friday Aug'3rd close of 2740 is a problem though.


Brazil – Bovespa


After a rough May/June, the Bovespa caught a very powerful bounce, settling +6457pts (8.9%) to 79220. Despite the gain, monthly price momentum is negative, for the first time since early 2016.


Russia - RTSI


The Russian equity market gained 19pts (1.6%) to 1173. The 1200 threshold remains key. Higher energy prices would really help this market.


France – CAC


The CAC settled +187pts (3.5%) to 5511, notably back above the key 10MA. Next big target is the June 2007 high of 6168.


Spain – IBEX


The Spanish market gained 248pts (2.6%) to 9870. The m/t trend remains bearish from early 2017. Note giant resistance of 12k. Things would turn extremely bearish <8500, but that is a long way down.


Australia – AORD


Australian equities climbed for a fourth consecutive month, breaking a new multi-year high, gaining 76pts (1.2%) to 6366.


Greece - Athex


The economic basket-case of the EU - Greece, gained 3pts (0.5%) to 761, notably under the key 10MA. The Athex is a perfect reflection of a Greek economy that never recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008/09.
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Summary

All ten world equity markets saw net July gains.

Brazil, USA, and Germany lead the way higher, with China and Greece lagging.

The m/t outlook offers at least another 2-3 months of upside.
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Looking ahead

Earnings season continues, notably: TWLO, SNAP, DIS, ROKU, DBX


M -
T - Consumer credit (3pm)
W - EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, PPI, Wholesale trade
F - CPI, US T-budget
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 3 August 2018

A fifth week higher

US equity indexes closed the week on a positive note, sp +13pts (0.5%) at 2840. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers another s/t rollover, as the sp'2760s remain long overdue.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Yesterday's daily candles did lean for further s/t upside, and that did largely play out today. The sp' settled moderately higher, with the VIX melting lower into the weekend.

sp'weekly


The sp' saw a fifth consecutive net weekly gain, with the sp +21pts (0.8%) at 2840.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EDT, and will detail ten of the world equity markets.
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Thursday, 2 August 2018

One trillion dollars

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +13pts (0.5%) at 2827 (intra low 2796). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and +0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers another cooling wave back to support of sp'2796/95.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, but there was an opening reversal, and the market clawed upward across the day. The sp' settled with a bullish engulfing candle, which does lean to s/t upside. VIX swung from the mid 14s to the low 12s.

Basic technical necessity remains sp'2768, but the s/t outlook is conflicted, as today's settling candles are suggestive of further strength, against daily price momentum that still leans to the bears.
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The trillion dollar tech monster

Today was Apple's day, as it became the first one trillion dollar company. 

AAPL, 1983-2018


First, keep in mind that the AAPL IPO was Dec'1980, but my data only starts from 1984. In any case, things really only got interesting from March 2009 onward. The next $1trn stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT. Would that make for the 'four horseman'?
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Any excuse...



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Goodnight from London
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