Late day surge

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +25pts (0.9%) at 2846. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +2.3% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a cooling wave before the weekend, but anything <2800 looks overly difficult, even with a looming full-blood moon!


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was mostly just another day of minor chop... leaning on the positive side. Yet, the closing hour saw news of EU trade concessions, and the market saw a hyper spike to 2848, a mere 24pts shy of the January historic high.Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX cooling for a fourth day, settling in the low 12s.
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Bonus chart: Brazil, monthly

After a rough May/June, the Bovespa is currently +10.2%. It does bode indirectly bullish for other world markets.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

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Very mixed Tuesday

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp +13pts (0.5%) at 2820. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.5% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% at 12.41. Near term outlook still threatens a 'technically necessary' mini washout to sp'2768, but that will be a challenge, as earnings are coming in broadly superb.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was very mixed Tuesday in equity land. The sp'500 saw a new multi-month high of 2829.99, with  the Nasdaq breaking a new historic high. Yet, there was some distinct cooling into the mid afternoon. The Trans and R2K both settled sig' lower, with tech effectively flat. Further, the settling sp'500 candle was of the black-fail doji type, which leans to the bears across the next few days.

Volatility continues to churn within the 13/11s. A sporadic spike to the mid 14s/15s will be a threat for the remainder of the week, even as earnings continue to come in broadly superb.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

Yes, I'm highlighting China again! With news of further fiscal stimulus, the Shanghai comp' is +2.0% at 2905. The current candle is very bullish, with a clear spike floor from 2691. It does bode rather well for other world markets into September.

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Positive chop

US equity indexes closed on a somewhat positive note, sp +5pts (0.2%) at 2806. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% at 12.62. Near term outlook still offers the sp'2760s, before settling the month >2800, with new historic highs due in August.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The week began on a pretty subdued note. Whilst the sp' did break last week's low to 2795, there was afternoon upward melt, with most indexes (Dow was an exception) moderately higher. Volatility opened in the mid 13s, but with equities leaning back upward, the VIX melted back to the mid 12s. S/t outlook offers the sp'2760s, which would likely equate to VIX spiking to the 14/15s.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With six trading days left of the month, the Shanghai comp' has turned net positive, +0.4% at 2859. The PBOC are meddling of course, not least via the Yuan fix. Mainstream consensus is that things would turn 'wild' with a break >7.00 to the USD. That really isn't far up... just 3% or so.

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