Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.85% (Trans), +0.58% (R2K), +0.16% (nyse comp'), +0.15% (Dow), +0.02% (sp'500), to -0.07% (nasdaq comp'). Near term outlook offers brief cooling, but broadly bullish into late summer.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp'500 managed a gain of 0.5pts (0.02%) to settle at 2801. Note the 10MA at 2756, that will offer support in the 2760s next week. Upper bollinger will be offering the 2900s by late August.

Best guess: with opex out of the way, s/t downside of around 1.5% to the 2760s. Broadly though, new historic highs (>2872) look due in August. Big target remains the 2950/3047 zone, which is where the market will very likely get stuck.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq was the laggard this week, settling -0.07% at 7820, but did achieve a new historic high of 7867. Upper bollinger will be offering the 8000s into end month.


Dow

The mighty Dow settled +0.15% at 25058. Note upper bollinger resistance in the 25500s. Further, note underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is set to turn positive before end month. In theory, there is a realistic upside of 5-7 weeks, which will take us into early September.


NYSE comp'

The nyse settled +0.16% at 12789. Weekly price momentum has turned net positive for the first time since late January. This is a subtle, but rather bullish sign for the broader market this summer.


R2K

The R2K saw a moderate gain of 0.58% to 1696. New historic highs look viable within 1-2 weeks.


Trans

The old leader - Transports, was the leader this week, with a very significant net gain of 1.85% to 10741. Price momentum should turn positive by early August. WTIC/fuel prices remain a concern, and whilst I expect that to be a drag on the tranny, it doesn't mean the index will be net lower.
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Summary

Five indexes were net higher, with one net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

Whilst a brief cooling wave is a threat next week, more broadly, most indexes look set for new historic highs by September.

YTD performance:

The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently +13.3%. The NYSE comp' is the laggard, -0.1%.
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Looking ahead

A busy week is ahead, not least with a truck load of corp' earnings, notably: GOOGL, FB, AMZN, INTC, XOM, and TWTR.

M - Existing home sales
T - FHFA house price index, Richmond Fed'
W - New home sales, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, Durable Goods Orders, Intl' trade
F - Q2 GDP (first print), consumer sentiment.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Opex chop

US equity indexes closed fractionally weak, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2801. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled -0.1% at 12.86. Near term outlook offers cooling of around 1.5% to the 2760s.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Some Trump tweets spooked the market in pre-market, but the half-life of market upset is ever shorter, with the sp' turning fractionally positive by 9.45am. The rest of the day was micro chop. The opex settlement of 2801 was pretty close to perfect for the market makers.

Volatility was naturally subdued, melting lower, settling in the upper 12s.

Goodnight from London
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The weekend post will probably appear Saturday 12pm EDT.

No wool for us!

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 2804. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers an opex settlement around 2805, with minimum technical necessity of 2768.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened moderately weak, but then resumed back into micro chop mode. The closing hour saw another fractional break of soft rising support. VIX remains relatively subdued. Once opex is out of the way, a cooling wave to sp'2768 with VIX 14s is due.
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Dr Amp...



Bullish silent running drapes.

Goodnight from London