Failed gains

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -23pts (0.9%) at 2699. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and -1.7% respectively. VIX settled +12.5% at 17.91. Near term outlook offers secondary target of sp'2671 for Thursday, before finding a floor, and resuming broadly upward across the summer.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities were moderately lower in pre-market, but news that the Trump admin might go easier on trade/tariffs via CFIUS, saw (almost) everything flip positive. The market opened a little choppy, and battled to 2746 around 10.40am. From there.... a full bearish reversal, with the sp' turning moderately lower by mid afternoon. The closing hour sure wasn't pretty, with some dynamic swings, and settling right at the low of 2699.

Volatility saw a morning floor of 14.76, but then rebounded, settling in the upper 17s. Near term outlook offers sp'2670s, which should equate to VIX around the key 20 threshold. Next week is a holiday week, and that will favour the equity bulls.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With just two trading days left of the month/Q2/H1, the Shanghai comp' just keeps on falling, currently -9.1% at 2813. It remains technical open air to the Feb' low of 2638. I have to wonder, are the communists leadership actually trying to punish the capitalists speculators?

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Weak bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5.99pts (0.2%) at 2723.06. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.6% respectively. VIX settled 8.1% at 15.92. Near term outlook offers secondary target of the sp'2670s before the weekend/monthly settlement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and saw a brief reversal to fractionally lower. The market clawed upward into mid afternoon. There was a rollover from 2732 to 2721, which really doesn't bode great for the Wednesday open.

Volatility was naturally in cooling mode, with the VIX settling in the upper 15s.

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Market Fidelity

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -37pts (1.4%) at 2717.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.3% and -1.6% respectively. VIX settled +25.8% at 17.33. Near term outlook offers secondary target of 2671, before resuming broadly upward.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, once again spooked on trade/tariff concerns. With last week's low of sp'2743 taken out, it was technical open air to prime target of 2718. There was a micro bounce from 2718, but then another wave lower into the mid afternoon to 2698. The break <2700 is highly supportive we'll see secondary target of 2671 hit within days. 

Volatility naturally spiked, and exceeded beyond what seemed realistic. The VIX saw an intra high of 19.61, the highest level since April 25th, settling in the mid 17s.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With four trading days left of the month, the Shanghai comp' is -7.6% at 2859. Real ugly, and next support isn't until the Feb'2016 low of 2638.
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Westworld: 2x10: The Valley Beyond.

Westworld is one of the finest shows in recent years, raising issues of AI, and whether humanity has any real degree of free will. Intel and Nvidia will likely be part of the continued attempt to create a genuine AI. Who would run the park? Would it be anyone other than Disney? I'll merely add, I would choose a white hat.

yours, bullish Fidelity
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