Lower highs, lower lows

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts (0.2%) at 2773. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settling +2.7% at 12.31. Near term outlook offers sig' downside to 2734, with minimum technical necessity of 2718.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened moderately lower, seeing an early floor of 2757. Once again, there was a latter day recovery, with the sp' settling just a little lower at 2773. The daily candle was a hollow red reversal, which is normally a sign of a s/t floor. However, we do have another lower high and a lower low, which is supportive of further weakness. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to turn negative on Tuesday, and that offers first opportunity of significant and sustained downside. In theory, 2734 is a magnet, with prime technical target of 2718. The latter really should be seen.

The R2K broke a new historic high, and is a reminder of underlying m/t market strength.

Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX seeing the upper 13s, but settling in the mid 12s. The 15/16s look due in the immediate term.

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.32% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.24% (Trans), +0.68% (R2K), +0.02% (sp'500), -0.76% (nyse comp'), to -0.89% (Dow). Near term outlook offers cooling of 2-4%, before whipsawing back upward.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp' broke a new multi-month high of 2791, but settled +0.02% at 2779. That notably made for a black-fail doji candle, and bodes s/t bearish. First support is basic 'technical necessity' target of 2718, with secondary of 2671. M/t outlook remains bullish, with big target of 2950/3047 by late summer/early autumn,


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq climbed for a fourth consecutive week, breaking a new historic high of 7768, and settling +1.3% to 7746. S/t bearish, with big support zone of 7500/400. M/t bullish, with the 8000s clearly coming this summer.


Dow

The mighty Dow was the laggard this week, settling -0.89% at 25090. S/t bearish with the main market, soft support 24500/200 zone.


NYSE comp'

The master index settled -0.76% at 12734. S/t bearish, with big support 12500/400 zone. New historic highs >13637 look due in late summer.


R2K

The R2K climbed for a seventh consecutive week, breaking a new historic high of 1686, and settling +0.68% at 1683. S/t bearish with the main market, soft support 1630/20 zone. The 1700s look a given in July/August.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed for the fifth week of six, settling +1.24% at 11073. Recent weakness in oil prices especially helped on Friday. S/t bearish with the main market, but if WTIC $62s, the transports might trade flat, rather than actual sig' net weekly declines.
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Summary

A mixed week, with three indexes net higher, one effectively u/c, and two moderately lower.

The Nasdaq comp' and R2K broke new historic highs

Short term outlook offers 1-2 weeks of cooling, of around 2-4%.

The m/t outlook remains bullish, not least as the fed continue to regularly raise rates, which is bullish, especially for the financials.
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Looking ahead 

M - Housing market index
T - Housing starts
W - Existing home sales, EIA
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' fed, FHFA house price index, leading indicators
F -
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Witchy Friday

US equity indexes ended the week on a somewhat mixed note, sp -2.8pts (0.1%) at 2779. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% at 11.98. Near term outlook offers basic technical necessity of sp'2718.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, spooked on further trade/tariff chatter. The sp' saw a morning low of 2761, before a mini ramp in mid afternoon. The closing hour saw a touch of renewed weakness.

Volatility remained broadly subdued (intra high 13.16), with the VIX settling fractionally lower in the upper 11s. Near term outlook offers sp'2718, which should equate to VIX 15/16s. That will do nothing of significance to dent the m/t equity bullish trend.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With trade/tariff issues, the Shanghai comp' is currently -2.4% at 3021, the lowest level since May 2017. S/t outlook is bearish, with the 3K long-stops set to be washed out.

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Goodnight from London
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