Ending the week badly

US equity indexes ended the week very significantly lower, sp -55pts (2.1%) at 2588 (intra low 2585). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.8% and -2.1% respectively. VIX settled +6.5% at 24.87. Near term outlook offers a turnaround early next week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a somewhat positive note, which was rather impressive after overnight borderline significant declines. The gains didn't hold long though, as every minor rally was still being sold into. Just like yesterday, there was distinct late afternoon weakness, with another ugly closing hour. The sp'500 came within a fraction of a point of tagging the key 200dma.

Volatility was higher, but only moderately, settling in the 24s. Relative to the equity weakness, the VIX is NOT indicative of any underlying capital market panic/upset. The situation IS different to late Jan/early Feb'.


Asian weakness: Japan, monthly

With five trading days left of the month, the Nikkei is -6.5% at 20617. The Friday close <21k is very bearish. If March does settle <21k, it'd merit provisional alarm bells.
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Rather moody skies

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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EST, and will detail the US equity indexes
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Yet another thorny Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -68pts (2.5%) at 2643. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.8% and -2.2% respectively. VIX settled +30.7% at 23.34. Near term outlook threatens further weakness, although a number of key signal stocks are highly supportive of renewed upside across the spring.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Thursdays do tend to favour the bears, with equities opening moderately lower, seeing a morning low of 2661, and then rallying to 2689, negating half of the declines. The selling resumed in the afternoon, with the market seeing an especially ugly closing hour, settling at the lows.

Volatility naturally picked up, and accelerated into the close, settling in the 23s, the highest level since March 2nd (when sp'2647).


notable market: Germany, monthly

With five trading days left of the month, the DAX is -2.7% at 12100. Note the key 10MA at 12622. Another monthly settlement under that MA would merit alarm bells for Germany, the other EU markets, and to some extent... the US.
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No sunshine for the equity bulls

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The bullish rate hike

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts at 2711. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% at 17.86. Near term outlook offers upside to the gap of 2741/52, with a March settlement >2800. More broadly, the 2950/3047 is on the menu.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally choppy, and then leaned upward into the early afternoon. As expected, the fed raised rates by 25bps to a new target range of 1.50-1.75%. The sp' initially jumped to 2739, but then saw a significant swing lower to 2709. This sort of swing is to be expected for such a fed day, as the algo-bots try to trigger the short and long-side trading stops.
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Powell press conf' number one, with many to follow in the years ahead.

The VIX opened weak, and briefly turned positive in the late afternoon. Despite equities closing on the weaker side, with the uncertainly of the fed out of the way, the VIX settled lower for a second day. Single digit VIX looks on the menu this spring.
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