Yet another thorny Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -68pts (2.5%) at 2643. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.8% and -2.2% respectively. VIX settled +30.7% at 23.34. Near term outlook threatens further weakness, although a number of key signal stocks are highly supportive of renewed upside across the spring.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Thursdays do tend to favour the bears, with equities opening moderately lower, seeing a morning low of 2661, and then rallying to 2689, negating half of the declines. The selling resumed in the afternoon, with the market seeing an especially ugly closing hour, settling at the lows.

Volatility naturally picked up, and accelerated into the close, settling in the 23s, the highest level since March 2nd (when sp'2647).


notable market: Germany, monthly

With five trading days left of the month, the DAX is -2.7% at 12100. Note the key 10MA at 12622. Another monthly settlement under that MA would merit alarm bells for Germany, the other EU markets, and to some extent... the US.
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No sunshine for the equity bulls

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The bullish rate hike

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts at 2711. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% at 17.86. Near term outlook offers upside to the gap of 2741/52, with a March settlement >2800. More broadly, the 2950/3047 is on the menu.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally choppy, and then leaned upward into the early afternoon. As expected, the fed raised rates by 25bps to a new target range of 1.50-1.75%. The sp' initially jumped to 2739, but then saw a significant swing lower to 2709. This sort of swing is to be expected for such a fed day, as the algo-bots try to trigger the short and long-side trading stops.
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Powell press conf' number one, with many to follow in the years ahead.

The VIX opened weak, and briefly turned positive in the late afternoon. Despite equities closing on the weaker side, with the uncertainly of the fed out of the way, the VIX settled lower for a second day. Single digit VIX looks on the menu this spring.
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Chop ahead of the fed

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +4pts at 2716. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -4.3% at 18.20 Near term outlook offers a rate hike, with a viable March settlement >sp'2800. More broadly... 2950/3047.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and built moderate gains to sp'2724, before choppy cooling into the afternoon. This kind of price action is to be expected ahead of the FOMC, even where the capital markets are well aware of what the fed are going to do.

VIX was similarly choppy, settling in the low 18s. If new historic highs in most/all of the main indexes this spring, single digit VIX will likely be seen once again, but less regular/sustained than we saw in 2017.


France, monthly

With 7 trading days left of March, the CAC is -1.3% at 5252, notably under the key 10MA (5287). I would look for a monthly settlement >5300s.
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Spring officially begins

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