The bullish rate hike

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts at 2711. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% at 17.86. Near term outlook offers upside to the gap of 2741/52, with a March settlement >2800. More broadly, the 2950/3047 is on the menu.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally choppy, and then leaned upward into the early afternoon. As expected, the fed raised rates by 25bps to a new target range of 1.50-1.75%. The sp' initially jumped to 2739, but then saw a significant swing lower to 2709. This sort of swing is to be expected for such a fed day, as the algo-bots try to trigger the short and long-side trading stops.
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Powell press conf' number one, with many to follow in the years ahead.

The VIX opened weak, and briefly turned positive in the late afternoon. Despite equities closing on the weaker side, with the uncertainly of the fed out of the way, the VIX settled lower for a second day. Single digit VIX looks on the menu this spring.
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Chop ahead of the fed

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +4pts at 2716. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.4% and u/c respectively. VIX settled -4.3% at 18.20 Near term outlook offers a rate hike, with a viable March settlement >sp'2800. More broadly... 2950/3047.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and built moderate gains to sp'2724, before choppy cooling into the afternoon. This kind of price action is to be expected ahead of the FOMC, even where the capital markets are well aware of what the fed are going to do.

VIX was similarly choppy, settling in the low 18s. If new historic highs in most/all of the main indexes this spring, single digit VIX will likely be seen once again, but less regular/sustained than we saw in 2017.


France, monthly

With 7 trading days left of March, the CAC is -1.3% at 5252, notably under the key 10MA (5287). I would look for a monthly settlement >5300s.
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Spring officially begins

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Pre-FOMC washout

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -39pts at 2712 (intra low 2694). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate chop ahead of the fed. More broadly, a push to new historic highs (>2872) still appears probable this spring.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, and continued to slide into the afternoon. The sp' saw a spike floor of 2694, and there was a late day mini ramp to 2715. Today arguably makes for a pre-FOMC washout, and on balance, the market should resume strongly upward once the FOMC is out of the way. 

Volatility was naturally higher, with the VIX peaking at 21.87, but settling back under the key 20 threshold.

Bonus chart: Germany, monthly

With eight trading days left of the month, the DAX is net lower by a rather significant -1.8% at 12217. The equity bulls (including those in the US) should be seeking a recovery back above the key 10MA, currently at 12634. A March settlement <12600 would be strongly suggestive that the German market has seen a m/t top. 
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