Wednesday swings

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -15pts at 2749. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.7% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +5.4% at 17.23. Near term outlook offers a little Thursday weakness, before building a floor ahead of next Wednesday's rate hike.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and just like the previous two days, saw an early high, and then rolled over. Last Friday's gap of 2752/38 has been almost fully filled. There was significant weakness within industrials, with the mighty Dow settling -1.0%.

Volatility climbed for a third consecutive day, having seen the 17s. Its possible we'll briefly see the 18/19s tomorrow. No VIX above the key 20 threshold looks viable for the remainder of this week.
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Meanwhile...

I might have some things to say on that appointment another day.
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One week until spring... and a rate hike.

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... and finally...



The historians of the 24th century will look back with great admiration for Prof' Hawking.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday reversal

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -17pts at 2765 (intra range 2801/2758). Nasdaq comp' -1.0%.  The Trans/R2K settled +0.5% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled +3.6% at 16.35. Near term outlook offers further cooling to the sp'2752/38 zone, before resuming broadly upward.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the sp' pushing to 2801. Much like yesterday though, that was the high of day, and the market then swung significantly lower, settling broadly weak. It is notable that the Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high for the third consecutive day.

Volatility picked up for a second day, with the VIX settling in the mid 16s. Near term outlook offers further cooling to last Friday's opening gap of sp'2752/38, which would likely equate to VIX 17/18s. I don't expect any price action <2720, nor the VIX sustainably >20.
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Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

We now have two monthly candles with spike floors, from around the key 21k breakout threshold. This should give some confidence to the bulls for the mid term. Its just one market of many, but the Nikkei is certainly an important index to keep in mind for the monthly settlement.

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Spring is just 8 days away

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Broadly strong

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -3pts at 2783. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled +7.8% at 15.78. Near term outlook offers a little weakness to the sp'2752/38 zone, before resuming back upward into the 2800s. More broadly, 2950/3047 is right on track by early summer.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and built gains to 2796, before slipping into micro chop mode for the rest of day. Most notable was the Nasdaq comp', saw impressive bullish follow through after the Friday new high, breaking a new historic high of 7609,

Volatility picked up, but remains at broadly subdued levels in the mid teens. At most, if sp'2752/38, then VIX 18/19s. Any sustained move above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for some considerable time.

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Goodnight from London
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