Tariff Thursday

US equity indexes closed broadly moderately higher, sp +12pts at 2738. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -6.9% at 16.54. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. The sp'2800s are due with a rate hike, and more broadly... the 2950/3047 zone.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, built moderate gains, and then saw micro choppy weakness into the mid afternoon. Late afternoon saw another swing upward, as Trump formally announced the Steel/Alu' tariffs.

As the capital markets continued to subtly increase in confidence, the VIX melted lower for a fifth consecutive day. It should be clear, with another set of jobs/earnings data due from the BLS, there is little concern about a repeat of the Feb'3rd equity down wave.

Trump with the Steel/Alu' workers

Who could argue against fairness, right? I will add, if inflation does significantly pick up across this year, I imagine many will (at least partly) attribute such higher prices to today's announcement. Those who know their history, should be well aware of where this is likely headed.

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Goodnight from London
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Ohh the horror, Cohn exits

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt at 2726. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and +0.8% respectively. VIX settled -3.3% at 17.76. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. More broadly, a March 21st rate hike should help to give renewed confidence to the capital markets. Higher. Rates. Are. Bullish.  Or maybe you'd like to short BAC, MU, X, INTC, GILD...


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With Cohn following through with his threat to leave if any tariffs, overnight futures were lower by around -1.5%, but the market only opened moderately weak, and the equity bears simply couldn't achieve much. The market floored at 2701, as buyers were naturally attracted to the 2700 threshold... and the more cautious shorts closed out. The late afternoon saw a gradual recovery, with the R2K notably closing higher for a fourth day.

VIX saw an opening high of 20.49, and from there, went right back into melt mode, settling lower for a fourth consecutive day.

Seriously, did you really think the exit of Cohn from the Trump admin' would merit sustained/significant downside? Are you reading a little too much of the cesspool that is Zerohedge, or getting wrapped up in the mainstream hysteria chatter that is CNBC?
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The opening shot alone merited the Oscar for Deakins.

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... or are you sure that you don't want to give more attention to Zerohedge or CNBC?  

A New Tomorrow

US equity indexes closed on a broadly positive note, sp +7pts at 2728. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.8% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -2.0% at 18.36. Near term outlook threatens a little weak chop, but broadly, the 2800s are due. The March 21st rate hike should solidify m/t upside to 2950/3047 by early summer.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and then slipped into minor chop mode that continued across the day. The sp'500 settled with a black-fail candle, which does threaten a touch of cooling across Wed'/Thursday, but broadly, the 2800s look highly probable before end month. 

VIX merely melted lower for a third consecutive day, as the capital markets are increasingly confident ahead of the next rate hike.
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Japan, monthly

The Nikkei is currently net lower for March by a pretty significant -2.9% at 21417, but once again is seeing support around the key 21k threshold. Alarm bells would sound if March settles <20900 (to be decisive), otherwise, renewed upside.
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For some... there won't be a tomorrow.  I hope I'm one of them, as I fully recognise that some of you think I'm little more than worthless garbage. Again I refer you to the cesspool of zerohedge.com, or cnbc.com, either of those two might provide something far more appropriate.

Goodnight from London