Wednesday swings

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -13pts (0.5%) at 2681 (range 2684/2727). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -7.5% at 27.73. Near term outlook offers further chop, but leaning upward, with the Tuesday low of 2593 increasingly secure.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, but then swung significantly upward from 2684 to an intra high of 2727. There was a late day cooling wave, even breaking a new intraday low of 2681. The daily candle bodes for (at least) early Thursday weakness. Price action is pretty choppy, but distinctly less than the previous two days. Its really a case of the market in a stabilisation phase.

Volatility cooled for a seconday, with the VIX settling in the 27s. This is notably still an elevated level, and even today's close is way above the 2017 peak of the 17s.
--


Bonus chart: Japan, monthly

I realise many of you don't care (although you should), but the Nikkei is currently net lower for the month by -6.3% in the 21600s. So long as 21k holds... m/t bullish. I would acknowledge, that you could count 5 giant waves from the key low of Oct'2008. Those holding a broadly bullish outlook for global equities should be carefully monitoring the Japanese market.
--

Another day closer to the green shoots of spring

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Turnaround Tuesday

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +46pts (1.7%) at 2695 (range 2593/2701). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.7% and +1.0% respectively. VIX settled -19.7% at 29.98. Near term outlook offers further swings, but broadly... another multi-month push upward is due to big target of 2950/3047.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities experienced another wild day, opening sig' lower, but then seeing a powerful opening reversal from sp'2593, surging to 2682, before a great deal of chop that stretched into afternoon. The closing hour saw a new intra high of 2695.

It was a truly INSANE day for volatility. The VIX printed 50.30 in pre-market, opened in the 41s, collapsed to the 22s, then hyper ramped to an intra high of 46.34, before cooling into the afternoon, settling in the upper 29s.


Q. Do we have a key cycle low of 2593 from sp'2872?

Difficult to say. Volatility remains very elevated, but if the bears can't achieve another swing lower within 2-3 days, then we have a secure floor. Even if we did break <2593, it'd likely only result in a marginal lower low, before still whipsawing upward.

Big target for the late spring/early summer remains 2950/3047, which is where we'll get stuck. Considering recent price action/volatility, it has to be considered that a far bigger correction of 15/20% is viable this summer. Even that won't take out of range my year end target of 3245, that still looks good.
--


Meanwhile...

Space X saw a successful launch of Falcon Heavy, carrying Elon's personal Tesla Roadster.

The full webcast is highly recommended...


--

Sunny... but with occasional snowflakes.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Mini crash Monday

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, sp -113pts (4.1%) at 2648 (intra low 2638). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -3.1% and -3.6% respectively. VIX settled +115.6% at 37.32. Near term outlook offers a floor building phase, before resuming upward, as broadly... nothing has changed.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a truly wild day in market land, with equities opening moderately weak, seeing an early low of sp'2733, then rallying to turn fractionally positive to 2763, but then the buying dried up.

The selling resumed at 10.25am, with prices increasingly weak. There was an outright mini crash around 3pm, with a hyper spike floor of 2638, a full 125pts below the morning high. There was a closing hour attempt to rally, but that failed.

sp'5min

On any basis, today can seen as a mini crash. The wave counters out there could justifiably label this afternoon as a sub'3 of 3.
-
As for the VIX, it was an insane day of swings, opening in the 19s, cooling to the 16s, but then hyper spiking to the 38s into the close. Today was the highest VIX print since Aug'2015.
--


It was notable that the infamous Cramer was noting '... the market just broke again... its too bad'.

Interestingly, the less hysterical Bill Griffeth of closing bell did counter the Cramer, basically saying the valid argument of how its never broken when its going up... only on the decline.

Lets be clear.... nothing in the bigger picture has changed. Its just a sporadic retrace that was overdue. We've seen a recent breakout in commodities, with bullish breakouts in a number of world equity markets.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html