Rough week in equity land

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -59pts at 2762. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -2.1%. VIX settled +28.5% at 17.31. Near term outlook threatens another 2% lower to around the 2700 threshold, before a massive whipsaw upward. Big target of 2950/3047 remains on the menu for late March/April.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened broadly weak, and steadily cooled to sp'2759 in the closing hour, back to levels last seen Jan'11th.

With equities unravelling, volatility soared. The VIX saw an intra high of 17.86, which notably broke above last years high. The key 20 threshold is (surprisingly) viable next week, which would be seen if we see further cooling to around sp'2700.

It was the most bearish week since Jan'2016...

sp'weekly

The sp' saw a net weekly decline of -110pts (3.8%) to 2762. Underlying price momentum is weakening, but a bearish MACD cross is still at least another full week away. First rising support will be around 2700 next week, which would make for a natural floor, before resuming upward to 2950/3047 zone by late spring.
--

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Chop with good earnings

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp -1.8pts at 2821. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -0.5% at 13.47. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. More broadly, big target remains sp'2950/3047.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of moderate chop for US equities. Pre-market fractional gains turned to moderate weakness at the open, but those were soon reversed. Moderate gains in early afternoon were fully negated to fractional declines into the close.

Volatility was itself choppy, and notably remains in the teens. The key 20 threshold still looks out of range until the market has reached big target of sp'2950/3047, which seems viable from mid March onward.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Chop into end month

US equity indexes ended the month on a moderately mixed note, sp +1.4pts at 2823. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -8.4% at 13.54. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. More broadly, the 2900s appear on the menu for the latter half of February.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but maxed out at 2839, and then saw chop across the day. Once the FOMC was out of the way, the market leaned weak, breaking a new intralow in the closing hour, then leaning fractionally higher.

The VIX opened weak, filled yesterday's gap, and then climbed as equities cooled in the late afternoon.

*stockcharts settling VIX print of 13.70 is different from my trading screen of 13.54, and I'll side with the screen!
--


YTD performance, sp'daily6

With one month of the year complete, the Nasdaq comp' is currently +7.4%, with the sp' +5.6%. Even the laggy R2K and Trans are still net higher by a significant +3.4% and +2.6% respectively. On any basis, it was a powerfully bullish start to the year.
--

The sun sets on an exceptionally bullish January

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html