Chop into end month

US equity indexes ended the month on a moderately mixed note, sp +1.4pts at 2823. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -8.4% at 13.54. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. More broadly, the 2900s appear on the menu for the latter half of February.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but maxed out at 2839, and then saw chop across the day. Once the FOMC was out of the way, the market leaned weak, breaking a new intralow in the closing hour, then leaning fractionally higher.

The VIX opened weak, filled yesterday's gap, and then climbed as equities cooled in the late afternoon.

*stockcharts settling VIX print of 13.70 is different from my trading screen of 13.54, and I'll side with the screen!
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YTD performance, sp'daily6

With one month of the year complete, the Nasdaq comp' is currently +7.4%, with the sp' +5.6%. Even the laggy R2K and Trans are still net higher by a significant +3.4% and +2.6% respectively. On any basis, it was a powerfully bullish start to the year.
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The sun sets on an exceptionally bullish January

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Awaiting the SOTU

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -31pts at 2822. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled +6.9% at 14.80. Near term outlook offers at least a moderate bounce into end month. More broadly, the 2950/3047 zone remains big target this spring.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, with the market seeing rather significant cooling to sp'2818 by 10.05am. The rest of the day was just minor chop, with a notable fractional higher low of 2819 in the 1pm hour.. which held into the close.

With weak equities, volatility jumped at the open, seeing an intra high of 15.42, the highest VIX print since last August.


The State of the Union address

Pres' Trump will give the SOTU address Tuesday, around 9pm EST. It will likely be an particularly cheerleading speech. In particular, look for some mention about an infrastructure bill, which would be partly financed via super long term (50yr?) bonds. Such talk will likely inspire equity upside into end month.
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Monday weakness

US equity indexes settled moderately weak, sp -19pts at 2853. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +24.9% at 13.84. Near term outlook threatens a further little weakness to 2849/39, but then resuming upward into end month, on SOTU talk about an infrastructure bill.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, saw a floor around the typical 11am turn time, with a little wave higher into the early afternoon. There was renewed weakness into the close, but again... nothing of any significance.

With weak equities, the VIX gained a rather powerful 24.9% to the upper 13s, and we've not seen the teens since Dec'1st. It be can be argued that we're seeing particular strength in the VIX because of the amount of earnings and econ-data due this week... ohh, and an FOMC too!

To be clear, a day of moderate weakness after Friday's historic highs, does absolutely nothing to dent the m/t hyper bullish trend. The sp'2900s are absolutely viable into end month.
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January set to end

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