Wednesday swings

US equity indexes closed on the weaker side, sp -1.6pts at 2837. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +4.4% at 11.46. Near term outlook threatens a further little weakness, but nothing <2800. More broadly, the 2950/3047 zone remains on track within 2-5mths.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened higher, with the usual quintet of indexes breaking new historic highs. Again, the transports was the laggard, dragged lower by the market's (bizarre) notion that an air price war is a threat via increased capacity. There was a somewhat significant swing lower around 10.35am, with the sp' cooling from 2852 to 2824, before an afternoon recovery.

Volatility was positive for almost the entire day, settling moderately higher in the low 11s. Its notable the VIX has seen 11 positive closes out of 14 days. That is rather unusual. However, I still don't see any chance of sustained high volatility until equities have climbed another 4-5%.
--


Bonus chart: Brazil, monthly

The Bovespa is currently +9.5% at 83680. Its well on the way toward m/t bullish target of 100k. As I regularly note, higher commodity prices will especially help the BRICs.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Behold, the acceleration

US equity indexes closed a little mixed,  sp +6pts at 2839. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled +0.6% at 11.10. Near term outlook offers the 2850/60s before end month. More broadly, big target remains 2950/3047, where we'll get stuck.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, but it was enough to generate new historic highs in five of the six main indexes (Transports remains a little laggy). With equities broadly strong, the VIX was subdued, settling in the low 11s.
--


Behold, the acceleration

sp'monthly3b

When seen on a linear chart, you can really see the acceleration that I have been seeking. Even to me though, sp +165pts (6.2%) is pretty incredible to see.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

A quintet to begin the week

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +22pts at 2832. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.5%. VIX settled -4.6% at 11.05. Near term outlook offers the 2850/60s. More broadly, first big target is 2950/3047, where the market will get stuck.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, but then leaned upward, and built moderate gains into the afternoon. There was a quintet of new index highs, with only the Transports missing out. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling in the low 11s.
--


Bonus chart: Italy, monthly

The MIB is currently +9.3% at 23890. A decisive monthly close >24k is due, and that will open the door to grander upside to (at least) 35k by mid 2019. Implications for other world markets. I'd also refer anyone to the Russian or Chinese markets.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.

For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html