Thursday chop

US equity indexes closed on the weaker side, sp -4pts at 2798. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +2.6% at 12.22. Near term outlook threatens moderate weakness into the opex-weekly close. More broadly, first big target remains 2950/3047, which is clearly at least a few months away.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, saw some chop, leaned a little higher into mid afternoon, with closing hour minor weakness. The Dow notably broke a new historic high.

VIX saw a few minor swings, notably settling higher for the 9th day of past 10. Cyclically high, with the VIX highly prone to cooling back into the 10/9s by end month.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

The Shanghai comp' is currently net higher for January by a very significant 5.1% at 3474. This is a provisional breakout. The 3500s would be decisive, and offer 4500 within 9-15 months. Huge implications for other world markets.

I'd also refer you to the Russian (RTSI) and Italian (MIB) markets. 
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A day of blustery showers in the metropolis

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Wednesday rebound

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +26pts at 2802. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and +0.9% respectively. VIX settled +5.3% at 11.91. Near term outlook offers a little chop. More broadly, Mr Market remains on track for the sp'2950/3047 zone by mid summer.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and after some early morning 'shaky chop', the market resumed upward, building borderline significant gains. The Dow and NYSE comp' notably broke new historic highs, which does help to negate yesterday's reversal.

With equities a little shaky in early trading, the VIX broke a new multi-month high of 12.81, but then cooled into the mid afternoon, settling moderately higher in the upper 11s.
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Cashin with an appropriate hat.

If I'm right about the mid sp'3200s by year end, Art will need another 3 or 4 hats, as Dow 29/30k would be the direct equivalent.
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One more day closer to summer.

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The accelerated mainstream

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -9pts at 2776. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -1.2% respectively. VIX settled +11.8% at 11.66. Near term outlook threatens a little further cooling, but even <2730 looks out of range. More broadly, 2950/3047 remains on track by early summer.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Trading day 10 of 2018 began on a very bullish note, with all six of the main indexes breaking new historic highs. However, the market became stuck at sp'2807, and saw increasing weakness into the mid afternoon. The fact we actually filled the opening gap is something of a novelty.

With equities seeing a significant reversal to the downside, volatility picked up, with the VIX breaking into the 12s, for the first time since Dec'1st. The 12s aren't exactly anything for the VIX bulls to get excited about though.

S/t, there is moderate threat of further cooling to around sp'2750, which would arguably equate to VIX 13/14s. More broadly though, its all to be regarded as noise, as we're well on the way to first big target of 2950/3047.
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The accelerated mainstream

An accelerated Santolli

Watching the cheerleaders this lunchtime, it was the same old nonsense. They are still overly twitchy as the market just keeps on broadly climbing. Now they are using words like 'Acceleration'. Anyone remember the Christmas tree picture I did? Anyone starting to fully realise what is actually happening here?

-Few are considering that commodities are on the edge of a major surge (CRB >197s)
-Price structure in many world markets (Russia, China, Italy) offers 'basic upside' of around 20%
-A number of key world markets are close/in the process of breaking out, giving high confidence for the spring/early summer
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One more day closer to summer.

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Goodnight from London
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