Thursday, 28 December 2017

2017 set to wrap

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +4pts at 2687. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled -2.8% at 10.18. Near term outlook offers further minor chop into the yearly close. As I've been relentlessly touting across the year, the original target of 2683 remains on track.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was another day of minor chop for the US equity market. The NYSE comp' once again broke another (if only fractional) historic high of 12843. VIX was naturally subdued, settling in the low 10s.

With just one trading day left of the year...

sp'monthly6


... yours truly is understandably 'curious' as to whether the trading gods will indeed settle 2017 at sp'2683. Regardless, its going to be close.
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An icy day in the London metropolis

.. as the days are starting to lengthen

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 27 December 2017

Two trading days left

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +2pts at 2682. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +2.1% at 10.47. Near term outlook offers minor chop across the remaining two trading days of 2017. The original settlement target of sp'2683 is set to be mighty close.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities saw another day of fractional chop. It was notable that the NYSE comp' broke a new historic high of 12834, making it a day for the bulls. VIX clawed higher for a third consecutive day, settling in the mid 10s. At most, a sporadic burst to the 11/12s is due, but is far more likely next week.
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Meanwhile...



The US equity record highs have become part of almost every Trump speech/comment. If he takes credit for the  gains, what will happen when the market does (eventually) see a retrace of 5, 10, or 'ohh the humanity' 15/20% ?

For those that regularly watched the campaign rallies across 2015/16, they should be well aware of how Trump is contemptful against the shortside traders. Do not be surprised if he comes to blame them for any 'drama' in 2018.
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Another cold day in London city

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 26 December 2017

Boxing day micro chop

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp -2pts at 2680. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled +3.5% at 10.25. Near term outlook offers moderate swings, due to settle the year, very close to original target of sp'2683.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, and that was how it remained across the day. Seasonally, the 'Santa rally' began today, but so far... there is no sign of it. The equity bulls have nothing to prove of course, after a year of powerful gains.

Market volatility climbed for a second day, settling in the 10s. Whether 9s, 10s, or the 11s though, its arguably all to be regaded as noise. The low teens look out of reach in the near term. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the latter half of January.
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Boxing day gloom, not so bullish.
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... Mrs Brown says that in London, everyone is different, but that means.. anyone can fit it in. I think she must be right, because although I don't look like anyone else, I really do feel at home. I will never be like other people, but thats alright.... because I'm a bear. A bear called... Paddington

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

 If you value my work, subscribe to me.


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