Moderate midweek chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp' -0.3pts at 2629. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -2.7% at 11.02. Near term outlook offers moderate chop within sp'2630/65. More broadly, the year end target of 2683 remains on track, with sp'3K viable as early as next spring.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a day of moderate chop, with the sp' seeing a morning low of 2624, and clawing upward into the low 2630s. VIX itself remained naturally subdued, settling in the low 11s. It should be clear, not least based on recent price action, the sp'2700s and Dow 25k are viable before year end.

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Looking back to look forward

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -9pts at 2629. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled - 1.3% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% at 11.33. Near term outlook offers a fair amount of moderate chop, as cyclically, the market is over-stretched. The year end target of sp'2683 remains on track.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say.. it was a day of chop, with the market seeing some distinct cooling in the latter half of the day. Tech notably outperformed the main market today. Despite the swing from sp'2648 to '27, the VIX stayed red the entire day, and is indicative of underlying capital market confidence.
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Today I wanted to highlight some chatter from the lunchtime show...

BAC's Ms. Subramanian is seeking the sp'2800s in 2018. Its broadly inline with many...

Naturally, I had to wonder... 'ohh, so what did BAC/Ms. Subra' think last year?


A little digging in my archives...

... and ohh lookie, (Dec'19th 2016) BAC were seeking 2300 for end 2017. That is a monstrous 365pts shy of Monday's high, and that number might even increase >400 in the remaining 17 trading days of the year.

Yours truly IS leading the curve. My original target of 2683 has come within 18pts of being hit. 

Ohh, and yes, I am already finalising an end 2018 target. Those of you who follow me particularly closely will already have a fair idea of what I'm likely to soon make official.

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Normal service resumes

US equity indexes closed exceptionally mixed, sp -2pts at 2639 (intra high 2665), with the Nasdaq comp' -1.0%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.8% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +2.2% at 11.68. Near term outlook offers a touch of weakness to around sp'2630, before resuming upward. The 2700s appear within range, ironically set to overshoot the 'crazy bullish' year end target of 2683.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Friday saw the 'Flynn scare', which is now recognised as an entirely inaccurate story. Further, we saw the Senate pass the tax bill on Friday. Those two resolved issues resulted in the US market opening broadly higher, with a quintet of historic index highs.Tech was notably lagging again, partly an instance of sector rotation, and further cooling after the recent technical breaks (such as MU, NVDA, NFLX). Broadly, the m/t trend in tech is unquestionably still bullish.

It was a mixed day for volatility, with the VIX being ground to the low 10s in the morning, but with equities seeing some latter day cooling, the VIX notably managed the 7th daily gain of the past 8 days. On balance, the 9/8s should be seen sooner, rather than later.

A fair few should now recognise that sp'2700s and Dow 25k are (in theory) just about viable before year end.

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