Another day of chop

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +0.5pts at 2579. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled -2.6% at 9.93. Near term outlook offers moderate chop into the weekend. Broadly, the US market remains scary strong, based on good earnings/econ-data.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and leaned increasingly weak across the morning. The afternoon saw a moderate recovery, with the sp'500 managing a fractional gain, resulting in a very notable third consecutive black-fail candle. Those are usually indicative of bullish exhaustion.

With sp'2566, volatility saw a morning high of 10.89, but then cooling all the way into the close, settling in the 9s for the first time in a week.
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Meanwhile...

Powell is a surprise. Taylor was the best candidate, but then does it really matter? Various fed research papers have already made it clear, when the next crisis, or even just a 'standard recession' hits, the fed will cut rates and spool up the printers. It really doesn't matter who is the one that leads such as institution.

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Goodnight from London
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A mixed day

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +4pts at 2579. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +0.2% at 10.20. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling to sp'2560. The year end target of sp'2683 has come within 95pts (3.7%) of being hit.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with new historic highs in a trio of indexes. The sp'500 cooled from a new high of 2588, and briefly traded fractionally negative. The settling black-fail candle should concern the s/t bulls.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX again falling into the 9s, but settling fractionally higher in the low 10s. Near term outlook offers sp'2560 with VIX 11s. Things only get interesting if last week's low of sp'2544 is taken out, along with a VIX daily close >12.50.
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Special note on tomorrow...

Pres' Trump is expected to announce the nomination for the next Fed chair at 3pm EST.

yours truly is expecting (or perhaps that should be hoping), the choice will be Taylor.


Update 4.40pm EST...

According to DJ, the choice will be Powell. This makes little sense, when you compare the background for Powell vs Taylor.
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The waning moon rises over the metropolis

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Nine of ten

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +2pts at 2575. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.9% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% at 10.18. Near term outlook offers soft target of 2560/57, with secondary of 2544/40. Broader price action remains scary strong, with earnings and econ-data both supportive of it.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and leaned upward into the mid afternoon. There was a touch of cooling in the closing hour, as the month wrapped up. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX falling into the 9s, but managing a close in the low 10s. Near term outlook offers equity weakness, but a daily VIX close >12.50 looks very difficult.
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Nine of ten

The sp'500 settled higher for a seventh consecutive month, +55pts (2.2%), but perhaps most notable, the ninth monthly gain of the past ten.

sp'monthly

The monthly RSI is now at an incredibly high 81, which exceeds even levels from 2013/14. There is absolutely zero sign of the US equity market maxing out.

--
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Goodnight from London
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