11am update - fractional weakness

US equities remain on the weaker side, but clearly, the equity bears look set to be unable to manage anything significant until early next week. VIX is reflective of a capital market with near zero concerns, not least about North Korea or a fracturing Spain. WTIC is -1.8% ahead of the EIA report.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Price action is pretty subdued, but so long as no new historic highs (>2555), this morning's break of rising trend from 2488 is important. Another wave lower to 2540/37 zone is possible before end of today, but even though wouldn't rate as anything significant.

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notable weakness, APA, daily

Apache continues to struggle, not least after the Barclay's downgrade to $26, which is a very long way down. Unlike most energy stocks, APA is holding the m/t bearish trend from late 2016.


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weakness, JD, daily

Broadly choppy, and still on track to tag the 200dma. Unlike BABA, JD is yet to prove itself with any sig' profits. They look set to do well in the m/t. M/t >50.. and the hyper bullish will be seeking double that. The cautious will lean to BABA.

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time for an early lunch

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately weak, as short term rising trend from the sp'2488 low has been broken. First soft target is the 2540/37 micro gap. VIX is moderately higher, but still only in the low 10s. WTIC -1.8% in the $50s, ahead of the EIA report.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*keep in mind, we've the EIA Pet' report at 11am. That will likely show a net build. If WTIC loses the $50 threshold, that'd certainly help drag energy stocks lower, and to some extent... the main market.
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The lower hourly bollinger - sp'2545/44, will offer support this morning, with secondary of the micro gap of 2540/37. Any price action <2537 looks very difficult. VIX hourly chart is offering a sharper move from 11am onward.

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notable stock, MU, daily

Micron' has increased the share offering by another $200million to $1.2bn. The board are clearly VERY confident, and their actions are from a position of strength. There is an earnings gap of 36/34, there is risk that would be at least partly filled if sp'2475/61. Regardless, mid term outlook is hyper bullish, soft target 45/50, and then $100.. which is absolutely viable in 2018. I'd suggest anyone look at NVDA from early 2016 onward, not that I'm calling MU the next NVDA.

Cramer highlighting Micron's F' PE is only in the 5s.

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weakness, DIS, daily

Disney continues to struggle. The recent low of $96.20 looks extremely vulnerable, and once broken, will offer lower trend target of the 94/93s. Downgraded by Guggenheim to $105. Note today has seen a bearish MACD cross.
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Meanwhile.. s/t bullish hysteria in SNAP

Bullish follow through after yesterday's Credit Suisse target of $20. Big resistance 16.50/17.00.The bolder bears will be shorting, with a stop around the IPO threshold. Cyclically on the high side.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are a little weak, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2551. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 92.80s. The precious metals are fractionally positive, Gold +$2, with Silver +0.2%. WTIC is -1.4% in the $50s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

C' earnings were fine. EPS $1.42, like most other financials, giving a PE in the 12s. JPM results were also fine, with EPS of $1.76. Its notable that neither stock are significantly spiking on the news
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Yesterday saw an hourly equity bullish MACD cross in the closing hour. A rollover, with moderate weakness is due today. The bigger daily cycles won't offer anything significant until after the weekend.

Its notable that ANY degree of opening weakness will break short term rising trend, that goes back to the sp'2488 low. That will open up the two micro gaps of 2540/37, and 2521/19. Clearly, the latter looks out of range today, unless there is some sporadic 'spooky news', which would include any Trump comments on North Korea.

re: VIX. We're clearly on the low side, and a push into the 11/12s is well overdue.
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early movers

AAPL -0.2%, as price structure remains a bear flag
ABX +0.2%, with gold
AMD -0.4%, broadly choppy
APA -0.5% in the $41s. Barclays downgraded them to $26 yesterday.
BAC +0.1%, ahead of Friday earnings

BABA -0.4%.. but broadly super strong, headed for $200.
C +0.4% on earnings
CHK -0.5%, pressured via oil
CSCO -1.2%, s/t over-stretched
DIS -0.8%, s/t momentum is rather bearish indeed
F -1.1%, cooling after recent sig' gains

JPM -0.1% on earnings
JD +0.4%, but looks highly vulnerable to reversing today.
MU -0.7% in the $41.30s, with a notable earnings gap of 36/34.
TSLA -0.7%, broadly choppy though
TVIX +0.5%, with VIX +2.8% at 10.13
X -0.4% in the $25.10s, the 23s seem viable if sp'2474/61
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overnight markets

Its very subdued out there, and fractionally mixed...

Japan: +0.3% at 20954
China: -0.1% at 3386
Germany: currently -0.1% at 12957
UK: currently +0.3% at 7557
Spain: currently -0.1% at 10271
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Something I've just noticed appear on the schedule, Yellen is due to speak this Sunday (9am), at some conf' in Washington. Its not just her though, she'll be with the head of the PBOC, BoJ, and the vice-pres' of the ECB. That will merit serious attention, not least in terms of whether the other central banks are with her on the policy of QT that is beginning this month.

Have a good Thursday
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back at 10am...